Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 0-1 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.