With both sides at real risk of relegation next month, Saturday evening's Derby della Lanterna could prove decisive in the fate of both Sampdoria and arch-rivals Genoa.
Separated by five points in the Serie A standings - with Samp holding the upper hand - victory for the Grifone could pull their old foes back into the thick of the survival scrap, with time running out to preserve their top-flight status.
Match preview
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One of few highlights in a grim campaign for the Blucerchiati, a 3-1 win over Genoa in December's 'away' Derby did little to improve their subsequent fortunes, and struggling Sampdoria remain just above both the drop zone and their co-tenants at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
After holding Hellas Verona to a 1-1 draw last weekend, Samp are now winless in their last four matches and have beaten only the league's last-placed side, Venezia, since the middle of February.
As a result, they continue to flirt with the bottom three, and having won just three of their 16 matches in 2022, there has not been much to smile about since coach Marco Giampaolo returned to the Marassi dugout in January.
While Francesco Caputo's strike - one of a mere four attempts at goal last Saturday - took them within touching distance of victory over Verona, it was another unconvincing performance, and Sampdoria occupy 16th spot in the standings with four games left to play; only five points clear of the drop zone.
With challenging games against Lazio, Fiorentina and Inter yet to come, the Derby may in fact be Giampaolo's best chance of securing survival.
The oldest local rivalry in Italian football - with the first match being played in 1902 when Sampdoria were still known as Andrea Doria - this special occasion in the Calcio calendar has extra significance this weekend, and Samp cannot afford to come out on the wrong side of the result.
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A late 1-0 win against fellow strugglers Cagliari last weekend has kept Genoa's diminishing hopes of survival alive, and posting just a third league victory of the season now sees them within three points of 17th place.
That gap would have been double the size had Milan Badelj not intervened with a crucial 89th-minute strike which hauled their Sardinian counterparts back within range, and the Grifone can now focus on adding to their points total with a rare Derby success.
Indeed, the stakes are high on Saturday, as forthcoming fixtures against Serie A heavyweights Juventus and Napoli feature in their final three matches of a troubled campaign.
Though coach Alexander Blessin has stabilised the situation he inherited earlier this year - previously picking up a series of draws to take Genoa to a league-high total of 16 - his first clash with Sampdoria comes loaded with additional pressure; and his club have been very much junior partners in the match-up of late.
Before Liguria's capital once again comes to a standstill on Saturday evening, for the 78th top-flight encounter between the two sides, Genoa have won only one of their last 11 Serie A matches against their fierce city rivals.
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Team News
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Though Marco Giampaolo will be without suspended midfielder Tomas Rincon this weekend, both Andrea Conti and Sebastian Giovinco - the latter yet to make his debut since joining in January - have been involved in training and may be selected on the bench.
After starts for Rincon and the injury-prone Ronaldo Vieira against Verona, both Albin Ekdal and Inter loanee Stefano Sensi are expected to return to Sampdoria's starting XI.
Up front, top scorer Francesco Caputo has notched four goals in as many games over the past few weeks, and is one of two strikers carrying the hopes of a divided city on their respective shoulders.
Genoa's leading marksman Mattia Destro, however, is stranded one short of double figures for the campaign amid a nine-match barren spell, but is still set to feature on the big occasion.
Both Nicolo Rovella and Andrea Cambiaso are short of fitness ahead of the game, but Zinho Vanheusden may be available to start on the bench - providing back-up to Leo Ostigard and Mattia Bani, who continue at the heart of the Grifone's defence.
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Ferrari, Colley, Murru; Candreva, Ekdal, Thorsby; Sensi, Sabiri; Caputo
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Frendrup, Bani, Ostigard, Vasquez; Sturaro, Badelj; Portanova, Amiri, Ekuban; Destro
We say: Sampdoria 1-1 Genoa
A close one to call, as neither side have been able to find the net regularly in recent weeks, so desperate Genoa can add yet another draw to their substantial total thanks to their newfound industry under Blessin.
Taking a point from the Derby della Lanterna would also ensure the lights do not go out for either side in the pursuit of Serie A salvation.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 51.37%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 24.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sampdoria in this match.
