Real Salt Lake host Houston Dynamo at the Rio Tinto Stadium on Thursday, looking to remain within the top seven of the MLS Western Conference.
Freddy Juarez's side are currently one point above Los Angeles FC who are in eighth, while Houston have a five-point gap to reduce to be in with a chance of progressing into the national playoffs.
Match preview
© Reuters
Salt Lake were in need of a win last time out after two consecutive defeats against Los Angeles Galaxy and Portland Timbers, and three points is what the team earned thanks to a first half strike from Bobby Wood.
The home side would be right to have expected to beat Austin FC by a bigger margin having registered eight shots on target in that game, and Salt Lake played against 10 men for much of the second half.
Ultimately, though, it did not matter that Juarez's side only won the game 1-0, as the three points were the most important thing to get the side back on track for a top-seven finish.
The type of game to expect from Real Salt Lake when they have not got possession of the ball is to sit off their opposition, based on the fact that they have won the ball in the oppositions' final third the least times out of all the MLS teams this season.
In contrast, Houston are more likely to press Salt Lake high up the pitch, but this has not helped Dynamo keep many clean sheets this campaign, with teams having found it easy to penetrate their defence.
© Reuters
So much so that in their last three outings, Tab Ramos's side have conceded eight goals and unsurprisingly ended up losing all of those fixtures.
On Sunday, Houston perhaps proved why they will not make a push for the top seven this season after losing 3-1 to Colorado Rapids, despite managing 10 shots on target in that game.
Dynamo were not efficient with their chances and that demonstrates why the side have only won three games this season, but Ramos will not allow his side to give up on this campaign yet as a run of positive results could see the team climb the Western Conference table.
Houston last faced Salt Lake at the beginning of this month when the sides played out a goalless draw in Texas, and the game was evenly matched in terms of chances created and so a point a piece was most probably the fair result.
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Salt Lake's number one goalkeeper David Ochoa picked up a muscle injury at the beginning of August, and Zac MacMath has come into the starting 11 in Ochoa's absence for the last four games.
Andrew Brody has not featured for Salt Lake since July 4 and broke his toe at the end of that month, meaning that he will be sidelined until late September.
Juarez made multiple changes to his starting lineup for the game against Austin and the manager is expected to name the same 11 as last time after they got back to winning ways.
Attacker Tyler Pasher is a doubt for Thursday's clash with Salt Lake after picking up an injury at the end of last week, but Ramos will be keen to get the 27-year-old fit for this week, having had six goal involvements in 10 matches this season.
Midfielder Darwin Ceren received a straight red card against Austin two weeks ago, and he will serve his final match suspension on Thursday, with Derrick Jones coming into the middle of the park in his absence.
Winger Carlos Quintero will also not feature for Houston after testing positive for coronavirus, but his absence will be less impactful as he has not started any of his nine appearances this season.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
MacMath; Morgan, Datkovic, Silva, Herrera; Meram, Kreilach, Everton, Menendez; Rusnack, Wood
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Figueroa, Hadebe, Parker, Dorsey; Junqua, Carrasquilla, Jones, Vera, Picault; Urruti
We say: Real Salt Lake 2-0 Houston Dynamo
Salt Lake will be keen to build on their victory last time out against Austin and facing another side that are towards the bottom of the table will seem like a good chance for another three points.
Houston's confidence will be low having not won since the end of May, and there has not been anything in recent performances to suggest that their fortunes will change soon.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 57.47%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Salt Lake would win this match.
