Rayo Vallecano will be looking to continue their encouraging start to the 2021-22 La Liga season when they welcome Mallorca to Estadio de Vallecas on Monday night.
The home side are currently sixth in the table, just three points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, while Mallorca occupy 13th, having picked up 15 points from their opening 13 matches.
Match preview
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Rayo, as expected, have been a good watch in La Liga this season, winning six, drawing two and losing five of their 13 matches to collect 20 points, which has left them in sixth position in the table.
Only the top three - Real Sociedad, Real Madrid and Sevilla (all eight) - have won more La Liga games than Rayo this term, but the home side will enter this match off the back of a defeat, having gone down 2-1 at Real Madrid before the international break.
Andoni Iraola's side have been excellent at home this season, though, winning five of their six matches in front of their own supporters, remaining unbeaten in the process, which is the best home record in the division.
Los Franjirrojos secured a return to this level of football via the Segunda Division playoffs last term, and they are looking to secure back-to-back top-flight campaigns for the first time since 2016.
Rayo have not actually faced Mallorca in La Liga since April 2013, when the two teams played out a 1-1 draw, but the pair met twice in the second tier last term, with each side winning their away fixture.
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Mallorca finished second in the Segunda Division last term to secure an immediate return to the top flight, and they have also shown plenty of encouraging signs in the opening months of the campaign.
Indeed, a record of three wins, six draws and four defeats has seen them collect 15 points, which is enough for 13th position heading into the next set of fixtures.
Mallorca are actually on a four-game unbeaten run in Spain's top flight, although each of those four matches have finished level, including a 2-2 draw with Elche before the international break.
Luis Garcia's side are now facing back-to-back league fixtures against Rayo and Getafe before opening their 2021-22 Copa del Rey challenge away to Gimnastica Segoviana.
The Pirates have conceded 19 times in La Liga this term, which is the joint-third worst defensive record, but they have found the back of the net on 13 occasions in their 13 fixtures.
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Team News
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Rayo will be missing key forward Radamel Falcao for this match due to a groin problem, while Martin Merquelanz will also be absent through a knee injury.
Sergi Guardiola is likely to lead the home side's line in Falcao's absence, but Alvaro Garcia, Isi Palazon and Oscar Trejo should all retain their spots in the attacking areas.
The team is expected to be similar to the one that took to the field against Real Madrid before the international break, although Ismaila Ciss could come into the midfield.
As for Mallorca, Takefusa Kubo, Antonio Raillo and Matthew Hoppe will all be absent through injury, but the visitors do not have any fresh fitness concerns.
Brian Olivan is pushing to replace Jaume Costa at left-back, but it could otherwise be the same side that took to the field for the first whistle against Elche before the international break.
Salva Sevilla and Pablo Maffeo were on the scoresheet in the 2-2 draw on November 7 and should retain their spots, while 34-year-old striker Angel Rodriguez is again likely to lead the line.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Saveljich, Catena, F Garcia; Ciss, Comesana; Palazon, Trejo, A Garcia; Guardiola
Mallorca possible starting lineup:
Reina; Maffeo, Valjent, Russo, Olivan; Sevilla, Baba; Kang-In, Sanchez, Rodriguez; Angel
We say: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Mallorca
Both teams will be in a confident mood entering this match, and we are expecting it to be an open contest. Rayo have been so impressive in front of their own supporters this term, though, and we are tipping Iraola's side to pick up another victory on home soil.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 50.6%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
