Charlton Athletic head into their London derby with Queens Park Rangers having moved one point above of the Championship relegation zone with victory at Hull City last weekend.

Meanwhile, after their surprise defeat at home to lowly Barnsley, Mark Warburton will be expecting his QPR side to produce a positive response at The Valley.

Match preview

Charlton boss Lee Bowyer on June 20, 2020 © Reuters

Given the much-publicised issues regarding Lyle Taylor's contract, Charlton boss Lee Bowyer would have spent the final weeks of the enforced break eager to get back to action in a bid to move on from the situation.

Playing a Hull City side facing similar issues both on and off the pitch raised the stakes considerably, and Bowyer may have become disheartened with defeat at the KCOM Stadium.

However, Jason Pearce's early goal proved enough for the Addicks to earn a potentially-pivotal win, one which has taken Charlton out of the bottom three for the time being.

While Bowyer will feel that another four wins are realistically required to avoid an immediate return to League One, he will acknowledge that the foundations have been laid ahead of an equally-important clash with QPR.

Despite the perception that QPR are almost safe, victory for Charlton on Saturday would take them to within five points of the Hoops, ensuring that their city neighbours will have to start paying attention to the teams below them.

Warburton would have felt that such a scenario was behind his team after putting together a six-match unbeaten streak before football was suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Twelve points, which included four being taken from games at Nottingham Forest and Preston North End, left Warburton wondering whether QPR could launch a late bid for sixth place.

Although only seven points separate the club from that position, more attention will be paid to ensuring that they do not get pulled into the battle below them, which involves teams who are beginning to find some form.

That is a consequence of slipping up against Barnsley, then bottom of the table, at Loftus Road last weekend, and it highlights that QPR cannot become complacent against any level of opponent during the run-in.

Charlton Athletic Championship form: LWLLLW

Queens Park Rangers Championship form: WDWDWL

Team News

QPR boss Mark Warburton on February 1, 2020 © Reuters

Warburton will almost certainly hand a recall to Geoff Cameron, who is available again after serving a suspension.

Luke Amos, on loan from Tottenham Hotspur, is expected to be the player who will drop down to the substitutes' bench.

Despite last week's success, Bowyer will make at least one change to his starting lineup, which could include a recall for Jonathan Williams.

Sam Field is also in contention for a start after Darren Pratley was ruled out with a knee injury.

Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Matthews, Lockyer, Pearce, Oshilaja; Cullen, Field; McGeady, Williams, Morgan; Bonne

Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Kelly; Rangel, Barbet, Masterson, Manning; Cameron, Ball; Samuel, Eze, Chair; Hugill

We say: Charlton Athletic 1-0 Queens Park Rangers

Before last weekend, we would have tipped QPR to win a hard-fought battle. However, motivated to build on their crucial success at Hull, Charlton appear to be in the right mindset to prevail by a slender margin.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.