Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.