Primeira Liga | Gameweek 30

Apr 29, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio dos Barreiros

Maritimo
1 - 2
Guimaraes

Catamo (87')
Mosquera (33'), Correia (40'), M. Gomes (42'), Mendes (90+11'), Riascos (90+11')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Silva (37' pen.), Silva (65')
Silva (38'), Silva (42'), Carlos (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Maritimo

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo
Saturday, April 22 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Monday, April 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Maritimo 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes

Given that Maritimo are fighting for their lives at the bottom end of the table, we expect the hosts to pick up a precious point against off-form Vitoria de Guimaraes, whose winless run looks set to continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
Maritimo	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
41.74% ( 0.05)	25.81% ( -0.01)	32.44% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 54.09% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.97% (

0.01)

50.02% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28% (

0.01)

72% (

-0.01)

Maritimo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.24% (

0.03)

23.76% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.09% (

0.05)

57.9% (

-0.05)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.94% (

-0.02)

29.05% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.03% (

-0.03)

64.96% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Maritimo 41.74%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 32.44%

Draw 25.81%

Maritimo	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 41.74%	1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.45% 3-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.81%	0-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 32.44%