Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.