Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.64%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 12.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.35%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.