Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.56%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 6.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.02%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.98%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
80.56% ( 1.86) | 12.68% ( -0.7) | 6.76% ( -1.16) |
Both teams to score 47.27% ( -3.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.65% ( -1.28) | 32.35% ( 1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.02% ( -1.5) | 53.97% ( 1.5) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.82% ( 0.09) | 6.18% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.63% ( 0.24) | 23.37% ( -0.24) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.38% ( -3.98) | 49.62% ( 3.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.61% ( -2.96) | 84.39% ( 2.96) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
2-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.91) 3-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.89) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.62) 2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.28) 3-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.66) 4-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.39) 5-1 @ 3% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.41) 6-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.19) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.28) 6-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.73% Total : 80.55% | 1-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.46) Other @ 0.72% Total : 12.68% | 0-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.34) Other @ 2.52% Total : 6.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
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