Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.68%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 2-1 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.