The Cascadia Cup takes centre stage this weekend at Providence Park, where the Portland Timbers host the Seattle Sounders on Sunday.
Portland ended a three-match winless run last Saturday, beating Real Salt Lake 3-2, while the Rave Green have lost two of their previous three MLS encounters.
Match preview
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So far in 2021, the Timbers have done just enough to get by, never getting too up or too down which explains why they are in the position they are in.
They have not lost more than two consecutive games all year, but at the same time have not won more than two successive fixtures, so it seems fitting that they sit in sixth place in the Western Conference at the halfway point of the season.
Like their opponents on Sunday, Portland have had to battle through a lot of injury issues and players in and out of the lineup but through it all, Giovanni Savarese deserves some credit for keeping his side not only afloat but in a playoff position.
Last weekend they got off to a fast start, going up 2-0 before the match was 30 minutes old, but in the end, they were fortunate to hang on as Salt Lake poured it on to find an equaliser, firing nine shots on target but failing to find that elusive third goal.
Even though they were lucky to earn three points, Portland will consider themselves due for a break like that, given that they have come away empty-handed in several matches where they probably deserved better.
While it is not the most famous trophy up for grabs this season, the Timbers would love to capture the Cascadia Cup by the end of this campaign for the first time since 2017, but they are not off to a good start, losing to the Sounders and the Vancouver Whitecaps in their only two matches in this Pacific Northwest championship series.
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The Sounders are starting to get a little healthier, and that is a welcome sight for Brian Schmetzer, who has struggled to find the right combination of players lately to win games.
They were able to maintain their first-place standing for a long time without many veterans in the lineup, but as the injuries have piled up, this team have shown over the past few weeks that they are human after all.
Even though Seattle are winless in their last three MLS matches, they will be coming into this game feeling pretty good about themselves after eliminating the reigning CONCACAF Champions League winners, Tigres UANL 3-0 in the Leagues Cup quarter-final on Tuesday.
Seattle are looking to become the first team to capture the Cascadia Cup on three consecutive occasions, and they are off to a good start, currently even on points with the Caps but holding a better goal differential.
Many of the players acknowledged that winning this week against such a solid Mexican side is something that they desperately needed to regain their confidence.
On Tuesday, Schmetzer played most of his regular starters, so with only a five-day break in between then and Sunday, we will see what lineup he goes with against the Timbers and how much energy his team will have.
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Team News
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The Timbers will be without Steve Clark with a right thigh injury, Jaroslaw Niezgoda is coming off left ACL surgery, Ismaila Jome is unlikely to see the field this year after undergoing left Achilles tendon surgery.
Jeff Attinella underwent season-ending right rectus femoris surgery, and Andy Polo had season-ending right quad and knee surgery.
Diego Valeri seems to enjoy playing the Sounders, scoring seven goals against them in his career, and Felipe Mora has goals in back-to-back games for Portland, scoring the winner last Saturday.
Brad Smith, Will Bruin and Nicolas Lodeiro all saw the field on Tuesday at the Leagues Cup after missing most of the season thus far through injury.
The Sounders are still missing Jordan Morris, Jordy Delem, Stefan Frei and Nouhou Tolo, but the team did make some moves this week, signing Leo Chu from Gremio in Brazil and acquiring Nicolas Benezet from the Colorado Rapids in exchange for $50,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) with the Rapids being able to receive an additional $50,000 GAM if some incentives are met.
Raul Ruidiaz, who got the opening goal on Tuesday in their Leagues Cup match has scored eight times against Portland in his career, and he is tied with Gustavo Bou for goals this season with 11.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Van Rankin, McGraw, Tuiloma, Bravo; Valeri, Blanco, Paredes; Chara, Mora, Asprilla
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Gomez, Cissoko, Arreaga, O'Neill; A. Roldan, Bruin, Paulo, Smith, Lodeiro; Ruidiaz
We say: Portland Timbers 1-2 Seattle Sounders
The Timbers have only been shut out of one home game this season, but they are not consistently playing up to their potential.
Seattle are finally starting to get some of their regulars back, and they made a real statement this week in their Leagues Cup fixture, proving that they are still a team to be feared.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
