Northern Ireland travel to Lithuania for the third game of their World Cup 2022 qualification campaign at the LFF Stadium on Thursday evening.
The sides sit third and fifth respectively in Group C, some way off the top two of Italy and Switzerland, but Northern Ireland will stand a good chance of claiming a first win here.
Match preview
© Reuters
Things do not get any easier if you are a fan of the Lithuanian national team.
The Rinktine are now on a run of seven consecutive losses, with their last victory coming in the shape of a narrow 2-1 win over lowly Kazakhstan in November last year.
Their two losses in Group C were understandable - a respectable 1-0 defeat away at Switzerland, followed by a 2-0 loss to future European champions Italy - but they also struggled in the far less imposing Baltic Cup.
The competition is the world's oldest active football tournament and is contested by just the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - aside from Finland's participation on two occasions as special guests.
Lithuania have won the cup on 11 occasions but this year lost to both their opponents, scoring just one goal on their way to the wooden spoon.
New manager Valdas Ivanauskas will have to do something to remind his men that they are capable of at least drawing matches, and a game at home against Northern Ireland is about as good an opportunity as they will get to earn points in this qualification campaign.
Northern Ireland were on an eight-game winless streak themselves until a 3-0 win in a friendly against Malta at the end of May stopped the rot.
They have managed just one win in a competitive match in the last two years, however, and that was via a penalty shootout against Bosnia-Herzegovina, so Ian Baraclough will be desperate for his side to pick up three points in what is a very winnable fixture.
The heady days of Michael O'Neill's reign, where they qualified for their first-ever European Championship in 2016 are but a distant memory now and, if Baraclough does not improve on his record of one win from 13 attempts here, the pressure may start to mount.
Qualification in this campaign already looks nearly impossible with Italy and Switzerland likely to fight amongst themselves for the two spots to advance, but anything is possible in football and victories here and in Bulgaria at the weekend would leave the team on seven points and perhaps change the complexion of the group.
At the very least, it would give the passionate Green and White Army something to cheer about for the first time in a while.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Ivanauskas has had to deal with the loss of his captain - and Lithuania's most-capped player ever - Saulius Mikoliunas to injury.
A man to keep an eye on for the home team will be his replacement as skipper Fedor Cernych, who found the net in a 1-1 draw with Warta Poznan at the weekend.
After a break of almost two years, goalkeeper Ernestas Setkus also returns to the national team.
Will Grigg will not be on fire on this occasion for the Northern Irish team, as the striker attempts to rediscover some form by pushing for a move from Sunderland to Doncaster Rovers.
Leicester City defender Jonny Evans will also be absent with a foot injury picked up in the FA Cup Final back in May - a significant blow to the backline.
Kyle Lafferty has been called up to the squad after Josh Magennis was ruled out by injury, with Sunderland's Tom Flanagan, Motherwell's Liam Donnelly and Morecambe loanee Alfie McCalmont also being drafted in.
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Svedkauskas; Gaspuitis, Beneta, Girdvainis, Vaitkunas; Megelaitis, Simkus; Verbickas, Golubickas, Novikovas; Cernych
Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Ferguson, Brown, Cathcart, Ballard, Dallas; Saville, McCann, McNair; McGinn, Lafferty
We say: Lithuania 0-1 Northern Ireland
It may be tight but Northern Ireland really should have enough to earn a first victory of the campaign against a Lithuania side at a low ebb, who are also missing their captain.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.
