Good afternoon! Thank you for joining
Sports Mole on another big day of
Euro 2016 action as Group C comes to its conclusion in the early kickoffs. Ukraine take on Poland in Marseille today, but our main focus will be on Northern Ireland's match against world champions
Germany. Neither side are guaranteed progress into the last 16 heading into this one, so it is all still to play for and victory would do wonders for both sides. Let's start with a look at the team news...
NORTHERN IRELAND STARTING XI: McGovern; Hughes, Cathcart, McAuley, J. Evans; C. Evans, Davis, Norwood; Ward, Dallas, Washington
GERMANY STARTING XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Boateng, Hummels, Hector; Khedira, Kroos; Müller, Ozil, Gotze; Gomez
What can we make of those two teams, then? Well,
Michael O'Neill has unsurprisingly named an unchanged side to the one that performed so impressively against Ukraine last time out, keeping faith with the same XI that has put his side potentially just 90 minutes away from the last 16. O'Neill rang the changes for that last game, bringing in five new faces from the team that was beaten by Poland, and each one has done enough to keep their place again.
That means that Conor Washington leads the line once again, with his place in the side perhaps the most under threat following the match against Ukraine. That is more to do with how important Kyle Lafferty has been for the side in recent times rather than anything Washington did wrong, and it is a big show of faith in him by the manager that he wants again keeps Lafferty out of the team today.
Niall McGinn may be a touch disappointed not to have earned a start having come off the bench to clinch the victory over Ukraine with a late second goal, but he once again has to make do with a place amongst the substitutes today. Ward and Dallas are the wide men chosen from the start to get up in support of lone striker Washington, and both the selection and formation suggests that O'Neill's side will give this game a good go today - like they did against Ukraine.
There is no getting away from the fact that Germany are expected to have the lion's share of possession today, though, which is likely to result in Northern Ireland's defence coming under sustained and heavy pressure. All of the back four are experienced and used to coming up against some of the world's best players in the Premier League, though, while McAuley showed against Ukraine that they also possess a goal threat from set pieces when the defenders come forward.
Try as they might, though, they can't come close to matching the star-studded nature of the Germany side, who give a small glimmer of their strength in depth today. The big question over
Joachim Low's selection was whether he would follow in the footsteps of the likes of France and England by making sweeping changes for their final group game, but he has resisted the temptation to do that having said in the build-up that his side are desperate to qualify for the last 16 as Group C winners.
As a result, then, there are only two changes to the team that were held to a goalless draw by Poland last time out. One of them sees a start for
Mario Gomez up front, which is significant as they had played their previous two games without a recognised striker. Gotze had been the furthest man forward, but he drops back into a slightly deeper role today. He, like Ozil, will act as a creator and Low will be hoping that the presence of Gomez gives them more of a focal point than they have had in their opening two games.
There was speculation that Muller might be drafted into a more advanced role, with Gotze to make way, but instead it is Draxler who drops out, while Muller remains in his deeper role. It just hasn't happened for the Bayern Munich man at this tournament so far, managing just one shot on target in the opening two games. Indeed, he is yet to score or assist a single goal in seven European Championship games which, when compared to his World Cup stats of 10 goals and six assists in 13 games, is a surprisingly poor record.
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Khedira and Kroos continue in the holding midfield roles, while the only other change comes in defence as the highly-rated Bayern Munich man Kimmich replaces Howedes in the side. Mats Hummels, who missed the opening game of the tournament, once again starts alongside his new club teammate Boateng, while behind them is the reassuring presence of yet another Bayern man in Neuer. Jonas Hector, of Koln, is the only non-Munich man in that back five.
It looks like a formidable task for Northern Ireland, then, and there is no doubt that they will go into this match as massive underdogs to get anything from it. Should they manage to somehow beat the world champions, or even nick a draw, then it would surely go down among the greatest days in their football history. A 1-0 win over host nation Spain in the 1982 World Cup probably still holds that accolade, but victory today would run it close.
That win over Spain was actually their last at a major international tournament before this summer, and it also saw them through to the knockout stages of that year's competition - something they are looking to achieve once again this afternoon. They won't need reminding how big a task is ahead of them - indeed, it doesn't get any bigger than the world champions - but if they can just sneak a win then they would be guaranteed a place in the last 16, no matter what happens between Ukraine and Poland.
Michael O'Neill's side are already guaranteed at least a third-place finish in Group C which, considering how tough the group looked, would be something of an achievement in itself. However, the difference between a draw and defeat today could be huge. Northern Ireland would be highly likely to progress through as one of the third-placed teams if they finish on four points, which 'only' needs a draw today, whereas three points would make for a close run contest with some of the other third-placed sides. A heavy defeat in particular would damage their hopes.
Fortunately for Northern Ireland, they aren't a team who have been on the end of a heavy defeats recently. Michael O'Neill has developed them into a very resolute side who are very hard to overcome, and that is perhaps best shown by the fact that they have not conceded more than one goal in a game since November 2014, a run of 15 matches. Romania were the last team to manage that feat, while in the last four outings they have kept four clean sheets, with Milik's goal for Poland in their group opener the only time they have conceded in that run.
Unsurprisingly with a defensive record like that, Northern Ireland's results haven't been bad recently either. They came into this tournament on the longest unbeaten run of any of the finalists, and while they lost that streak against Poland in the opening game they have still only been beaten that one time in their last 14 outings - some achievement for such minnows. Of those matches, seven have ended as wins and six as draws, although they have only won back-to-back matches once in that run. A draw would more than suit them today, though.
They are in a position to qualify courtesy of their 2-0 win over Ukraine in Lyon on Thursday, picking up their first ever win at a European Championships in some style. The difference between the performances in their opening game and their second outing was clear to see too. Against Poland they had just two shots (none on target), whereas against Ukraine they had 13 shot, seven of which were on target. Northern Ireland will now be hoping that was as a result of their own improvement, rather than Poland simply being a better team than Ukraine.
If they are to spring a shock today then a winning goal is likely to come from set piece. Of their last 10 goals in competitive games, seven have come via either a corner or an indirect free kick, so expect them to get men forward whenever they have such a chance today. That is not to downplay their style of football as they earned their place at the tournament, finishing top of their qualifying group and losing just one game along the way, although today's test is much bigger than any they faced en route to France.
It is a big game for Germany too today, though, and while they are a lot more accustomed to the pressure, the weight of any potential failure could affect one or two players should Northern Ireland make things difficult or even take the lead. Failure to get through the groups would be disastrous for the world champions, but with one game remaining that is still an option having been held to a goalless draw by Poland in their last outing.
Granted, it would take an unlikely sequence of results for Germany to miss out on a place in the last 16, but they will want to do it as group winners too, even saying in the build-up to the game that they only know the route to Lille, where the Group C winners will play. If they are held to a draw and Poland win then Poland will finish top of the pile, but any win for Germany is likely to see them finish in pole position. A defeat, plus a win or draw or Poland against Ukraine, would see Germany finish third, although as with Northern Ireland, their four points should still be enough to see them through.
It is highly unlikely that they will fail to progress then, and the cliche remains that you can never write off the Germans at a major international tournament. The last time they failed to make it out of the groups in a major tournament was at Euro 2004, and their record since then if, quite frankly, sickeningly good. They have reached at least the semi-finals of every European Championship or World Cup since then, including, of course, going all the way at the Brazil World Cup two years ago.
It just goes to show the difference of tournament pedigree between these two teams, with Northern Ireland appearing in their first major tournament for 30 years and their first ever Euros. Germany, on the other hand, have made their 12th consecutive European Championships since missing out on their first attempt in 1968, and they are the joint most successful team in the competition's history having lifted the trophy three times, although the last time they managed it was 20 years ago at Euro 96 in England. They also won the tournament in 1972 and 1980, while they were beaten finalists on three occasions too.
Such a rich history cannot be matched by many - and certainly not Northern Ireland - but while they always do seem to get the job done, they have not found their best form at this year's competition so far. A goalless draw with Poland, who they also lost to for the first time ever during qualifying for this summer's tournament, was a sign that something isn't quite right, and the usually prolific Germans have only managed two goals from their two games now - both against basement side Ukraine in the opening match.
Indeed, ever since lifting the World Cup two years ago, Germany have gone off the boil a little. They have lost four of their last nine outings and nine of 21 since the tournament in Brazil - the same amount as they lost in the previous 61 games stretching back more than four years. They have still won more than they have lost in that time, but it certainly isn't the record you would expect from world champions and it may give Northern Ireland a glimmer of hope of pulling off a shock today.
Again, the point about major tournaments cannot be ignored, though. Germany have won 12 of their last 15 games on such a stage, with their only defeat in that time coming in the semi-finals of Euro 2012 at the hands of Italy. They are also improving in defence, with three consecutive clean sheets making them one of only four teams yet to concede at this summer's tournament. Before that, though, they had conceded nine goals in four games, including a 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Slovakia.
PREDICTION: Right, we're 10 minutes away from kickoff at the Parc des Princes in Paris, which means that it is time for a prediction! The fact that Northern Ireland have been so tough to break down, and Germany not at their best, makes this a tougher match to call than the calibre of these two nations suggests. However, I just can't look past the superior quality in that German lineup and, if they do click, there aren't many teams who can live with them. Northern Ireland won't make it easy, but I'm going for 2-0 to Germany.
You will not be surprised to hear that Germany dominant the past meetings between these two sides, but if Northern Ireland are going to draw inspiration from anywhere then it will be the class of Euro 1984 qualifying. They beat Germany 1-0 in Belfast and then again in Hamburg during that qualifying campaign and, while they didn't end up reaching the tournament, it gave them some of the best nights in their footballing history. It also gave them a unique place in football history as they are still the only team to have ever beaten Germany home and away in a qualifying campaign. One to tell your friends down the pub.
Those are Northern Ireland's only two wins against Germany, though, with four draws and eight defeats from their 14 meetings too. That includes an ongoing run of four losses in a row that has seen Northern Ireland ship 14 goals and concede just two, although before that streak they were actually unbeaten in five, with those two famous wins and three draws.
The only previous meeting this century saw Germany run out 4-1 winners in June 2005, a match which saw Northern Ireland take the lead through David Healy's penalty in the 15th minute - which also resulted in a red card for Robert Huth - only for Germany to come storming back. Schweinsteiger and Podolski both played in that match, with the latter scoring. Germany also scored four the time they played before that, including an unlikely hat-trick for Christian Ziege. Northern Ireland's last win in this fixture was in 1983, when Norman Whiteside scored the only goal of the game.
Right, we're almost ready to go here! Should Germany win and finish top of the group then it would ensure that they miss Spain in the quarter-finals and take on a third-placed team in the last 16.
KICKOFF: Here we go, then! Northern Ireland get us underway in this huge match for Michael O'Neill's side as they look to topple the world champions.
It's been a good, bright start to the game from Northern Ireland, who have looked to get on the front foot early on here.
Germany have begun to settle into the match now, seeing more of the ball and spending much more time in the Northern Ireland half.
Needless to say, the atmosphere inside the stadium is brilliant at the moment, and it is the Northern Ireland fans who are making the vast majority of the noise!
CHANCE! Huge chance for Germany to take the lead! It is brilliant play from Germany as Ozil dinks a beauty of a pass behind the defence for Muller, who finds himself clean through. McGovern comes out to meet him, though, and smothers the forward with a big save. Northern Ireland attack right up the other end, but Hummels gets a timely foot in to stop that in its tracks.
Another piece of action for McGovern as this time he needs to come out for a floated free kick into the box. He doesn't get a clean punch on it, but does just about enough.
CHANCE! The pressure is already starting to build on the Northern Ireland defence, and their goal is living a bit of a charmed life. Ozil has a clear chance here, but he scuffs his finish and McGovern's save deflects off Cathcart and flies narrowly wide.
CHANCE! Yet another big, big save from McGovern! This time it is Gotze who only has the keeper to beat, but once again he spreads himself and makes the stop. He has kept his side in this after just 12 minutes! The ball bounces back out to Kimmich, but he tries to chip the keeper and puts it well over the top.
Well, it was a good opening three minutes or so for Northern Ireland, but since then it has been an onslaught on their goal. Quite how Germany are not ahead yet I'm not sure. McGovern deserves credit, but Germany will have expected to finish at least one of those big chances.
Northern Ireland make an increasingly rare foray forward as Ward gets into a crossing position down the right flank, but his low ball is easy for Neuer to snap up.
...and wearing a George Best t-shirt too. I'm not sure you can get more Northern Irish than that!
SHOT! Another sight of goal, and another mis-hit from Ozil. Hector plays a low ball into the middle that Gomez also goes for, and that appears to put Ozil off and he spoons it over the bar and onto the roof of the net.
Washington drifts out wide and finds himself in a bit of space too. He doesn't have many green shirts to aim at in the area, though, and his low cross is easily cleared.
CLOSE! It just won't happen for Muller at the Euros! Kimmich lifts a cross in to Gomez, who chests it down well into the path of Muller. Again he is faced with a great chance, but he sends his half-volley inches past the post.
Germany have utterly dominated the chances and the possession in this match so far, and it seems to be only a matter of time before they finally take the lead. Then again, I thought the same about England last night...
SAVE! Neuer is called into action for the first time here as Ward nicks possession and drives forward before letting fly from range. It is straight at Neuer, though, and he makes a comfortable stop.
OFF THE POST! Muller comes close again as another Kimmich delivery is met by the Bayern man, this time with a diving header. It very nearly sneaks into the near corner, but instead smashes against the foot of the post. The linesman's flag was raised anyway, presumably against Gomez as Muller was certainly onside.
The Northern Ireland fans have cheered everything to the rafters so far, but one of the biggest yet greets McAuley coming out of defence and beating a few white shirts.
GOAL! Northern Ireland 0-1 Germany (Mario Gomez)
Well, it's been coming. Germany finally break the deadlock, and it is more really good play from the world champions. Ozil slides a pass to Gomez, who in turn diverts the ball into the path of Muller. The attacker is prevented from getting a shot away, but instead drops the ball back to Gomez, who fires a deflected effort into the back of the net.
How will Germany approach this game now? I suspect in exactly the same way. It has been a very one-sided game so far, and there would be no real reason for Germany to take their foot off the pedal rather than pushing for a second.
He's marked his return to the side with a goal, and may have done enough to keep his place already too.
OFF THE BAR! I really feel for you if you have Muller to score anytime in a bet. He comes agonisingly close yet again as a low ball is fed back to him, and he steers it goalwards. He is leaning back a little, though, and it smashes against the crossbar.
CHANCE! Yet another chance for Germany as Northern Ireland fail to clear a corner and it drops of Khedira in space inside the area. He gets a shot away, but it hits a defender and Northern Ireland eventually smuggle it to safety.
Northern Ireland will be desperate to just get to half time still only a goal down now. They have been given a bit of a footballing lesson from the world champions in this half.
They may be watching their side chasing shadows for the most part, but the Northern Ireland fans have not stopped signing throughout this half.
CHANCE! Ozil is running the show today. This time it is Gomez who misses a glorious chance having been picked out in space by Ozil, but he completely scuffs his shot and McGovern is able to collect it easily.
Northern Ireland have a corner... but Neuer is commanding and catches it with minimum fuss. Such chances will be few and far between in this game so Northern Ireland have to make the most of them.
Germany almost have another chance as the ball is flicked on to Gotze at the back post, but he volleys his effort over and is spared by the offside flag.
The linesman has a painful one here as Ward blocks a clearance and it slams straight into the stomach of the official. In fairness, he is back on his feet quicker than most players!
HALF TIME: Northern Ireland 0-1 Germany
Well, Northern Ireland will be happy that half is over! Germany absolutely battered Michael O'Neill's side in that opening 45 minutes, yet the deficit is just one goal following a string of poor misses and big saves from McGovern. It could - and should - be four or five for the world champions, which would severely harm Northern Ireland's chances of qualifying, but at 1-0 they will be relatively happy at the break.
The only goal of the game finally arrived after half an hour as Germany eventually broke the deadlock through Mario Gomez. It was good football in the build-up as Ozil and Gomez combined to find Muller, who was prevented a shot on goal but instead dropped the ball back for Gomez. It was a relatively simple finish with the keeper and a defender already on the floor, but it still took a deflection on its way in.
I'm not quite sure where to begin was far as the other chances are concerned. Muller in particular has not had Lady Luck shining on him, hitting the woodwork twice and seeing a couple of other chances go begging too. He has never scored at the Euros, and if he doesn't manage it today then it might never happen. He was denied by a big save from McGovern in the very first chance of the game, while he also flashed a half-volley inches past the post following good link-up play with Gomez.
Mesut Ozil has also had a couple of really clear chances for the world champions, but on both occasions he scuffed his finish. The first was the best of the lot after the ball broke to him inside the area, but he got nowhere near enough contact on the ball, while McGovern's subsequent save deflected off Cathcart and narrowly past the target. The second looped over and onto the roof of the net after Gomez had also gone for the same ball.
KICKOFF: Germany get us back underway for the second half here as they look to turn their dominance into more goals in the coming 45 minutes.
It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this second half. Northern Ireland know that defeat is not too damaging for them, so long as it is not a heavy one, but they can't afford to sit back against this Germany team. Whether the world champions give them a choice is another matter entirely.
The Northern Ireland fans are still in party mode, and there are no prizes for guessing who they are singing about. Will we see Will Grigg today?
CHANCE! McGovern is having the game of his life here! He is lightning quick off his line once again as the ball comes to Gotze at the back post, but his firmly-struck shot is blocked by the keeper. Brilliant save.
CHANCE! It is another huge chance for Gotze as he slides in at the near post to meet a low cross into the middle, but he places his finish wide when he really should score.
That McGovern save may well be the best of the lot so far. His performance tonight reminds me of Fraser Forster against Barcelona for Celtic a few years ago. He has kept his side in the game, and maybe even in the tournament.
UPDATE: There has been a goal in the other Group C game, and it is Poland who take the lead against Ukraine through Jakub Błaszczykowski.
GERMANY SUB: Germany make their first change of the afternoon as Andre Schurrle replaces Gotze.
Very important contribution from Ozil defensively here as he nips in to nick the ball off Davis just as the Southampton man threatened to break into a really good position. Ozil has been sensational today.
CHANCES! More chances for Germany! Khedira races forward into a shooting position and his long drive draws yet another stop from McGovern. This time the ball pops up to Gomez, but the striker can't steer the rebound in with his head!
NORTHERN IRELAND SUB: Northern Ireland make their first change of the afternoon and it is Kyle Lafferty who comes on in place of Washington.
Almost a chance for Northern Ireland as they win a corner which Jonny Evans almost gets to, but Gomez does just enough. Another corner for Northern Ireland, though...
...but the second one comes to nothing. A little more from Northern Ireland in an attacking sense there, though.
Ward as two goes at Hector here and misses both of them. He is a little fortunate not to be booked, but further punishment could be yet to come as Germany have a free kick in a good crossing position.
Germany try a pre-planned routine which ends with the ball being played to Muller, but Evans is out quickly to make the block.
The pressure has just eased a little in the last couple of minutes, but I sense that it will be a minor lull in proceedings. Germany are just having a breather before launching their latest assault.
Just over 20 minutes remain in this match now, and still the deficit, somehow, is only one. Surely Northern Ireland aren't going to nick something from this game?!
GERMANY SUB: Another change from the world champions as Bastian Schweinsteiger replaces Khedira.
Another half chance for Muller as he reaches an Ozil delivery, but it is just too high for him to get enough on his header to test the keeper.
NORTHERN IRELAND SUB: Another change from Northern Ireland sees Josh Magennis replaces Ward.
Germany are getting a little frustrated now and that second goal becomes more and more elusive. Northern Ireland are actually looking a little better now rather than tiring as they really should be doing.
Very nearly another chance for Northern Ireland as Hector sends a ball right across the area, but Gomez is inches away from connecting and turning it goalwards.
SHOT! Kimmich is the latest to try his luck for Germany, but he curls his effort over and wide of the target from around 20 yards.
GERMANY SUB: A third and final change for Germany sees Benedikt Howedes come on in place of Boateng.
The onslaught has certainly slowed in this second half, and with 12 minutes to go and Northern Ireland getting a few more set pieces at the moment, the fans may just be beginning to dream of a late equaliser.
It will be interesting to see how the German camp react to this match. They have utterly dominated from start to finish, yet only have the one-goal. In truth, this has just been one of those days in front of goal for them, with a combination of poor finishing and excellent goalkeeping keeping them at bay.
CHANCE! McGovern simply will not let them pass! He makes another brilliant save to deny Gomez, getting down to his left to top Gomez's downward header away after he had latched on to Kimmich's cross.
SHOT! Ozil has a crack from range this time, but this one flies narrowly over the crossbar.
NORTHERN IRELAND SUB: Niall McGinn, who scored that second against Ukraine, replaces Corry Evans in Northern Ireland's final change.
It's been an historic night for Bastian Schweinsteiger, by the way...
A corner is only cleared as far as Hector, but he is stretching when going for goal and the ball flies a long way over the crossbar.
CHANCE! Another sight of goal for Germany, another save from McGovern as Gomez fires it straight at the keeper.
There will be three minutes of added time at the end of this match.
SHOT! Yet another effort from Germany as the ball drops to Ozil, but he lashes a half-volley wide of the target.
FULL TIME: Northern Ireland 0-1 Germany
Germany are limited to a 1-0 victory over Northern Ireland, then, and while the world champions have done enough to go through as group winners, they may have mixed emotions after that. They dominated from start to finish and could, perhaps should have won this one by five or six, which would have made things difficult for Northern Ireland to progress as the third-placed team.
The only goal of the game came after 30 minutes when Mario Gomez scored a deflected strike, but the big story was all of Germany's missed opportunities.
Michael McGovern in particular put in a stunning performance with a string of sensational saves, and that could well end up being the difference between Northern Ireland going through and going out.
That is all we have time for this evening! Thank you very much for joining
Sports Mole for today's match as Germany win Group C despite missing a glut of chances against Northern Ireland and being limited to a 1-0 win. I will leave you with our
match report, and be sure to stick around for reaction. From me, though, it is goodbye for now!