Netherlands Under-21s and Germany Under-21s square off in Szekesfehervar on Thursday evening looking to earn a place in the European Under-21 Championship final.
While the Netherlands pulled off an unlikely comeback to defeat pre-tournament favourites France, Germany needed a penalty shootout to overcome Denmark and reach the last four.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their four matches, the Netherlands are far from the finished article as they bid to win their first crown since 2007.
However, despite riding their luck on Monday evening, their dramatic 2-1 victory over France made a statement to the rest of the contenders.
Myron Boadu's name featured in the headlines after his second-half double, but it took as many influential performances at the other end to restrict France to a goal from a set piece.
Jong Oranje are no strangers to their next opponents with the two teams playing out a 1-1 draw during the group stages in March.
Nevertheless, Erwin van de Looi will feel that his squad have the edge on this occasion with Germany having been taken to the brink by Denmark.
Lukas Nmecha's 88th-minute equaliser kept his country in the competition before Germany came from behind to prevail 6-5 in a penalty shootout.
Germany are not as strong as in previous years with three matches having now passed without Stefan Kuntz's team winning in normal time.
However, like in tournaments gone by, they may relish the chance to be dark horses having reached the semi-finals for the fourth time in succession.
Nmecha, the Manchester City striker coming off the back of the best season of his career with Anderlecht, is one of five players sitting at the top of the scoring charts with three goals.
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Jonathan Burkardt is in line for a return to the Germany starting lineup after the impact that he made versus Denmark.
While Anton Stach and Mateo Klimowicz are competing for a place in midfield, Vitaly Janelt is now under consideration for a starting role after helping Brentford earn promotion to the Premier League.
Barring any late fitness issues, Van de Looi could stick with the Netherlands XI which started the game against France.
Mitchel Bakker is an alternative to Tyrell Malacia at left-back, but Ferdi Kadioglu should retain his spot further down that flank.
Netherlands Under-21s possible starting lineup:
Bijlow; Teze, Schuurs, Botman, Malacia; Stengs, Harroui, De Wit, Kadioglu; Boadu, Kluivert
Germany Under-21s possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; Vagnoman, Pieper, Schlotterbeck, Raum; Janelt, Maier; Baku, Wirtz, Burkardt; Nmecha
We say: Netherlands Under-21s 2-1 Germany Under-21s
As the one team not required to go to extra time in the last eight, we feel that the Netherlands are well placed to progress.
Germany have the quality to make life difficult for Jong Oranje, but Van de Looi's men could outlast their opponents.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands Under-21s win with a probability of 50.98%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Germany Under-21s had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands Under-21s win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Germany Under-21s win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
Spain U21s
