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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg national football team
Nations League | League C
Sep 25, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Lithuania national football team

Luxembourg
1 - 0
Lithuania

Rodrigues (88')
Thill (2'), Holtz (35'), Barreiro (78'), Rodrigues (90'), Bohnert (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Girdvainis (15'), Slivka (34'), Breu (35'), Golubickas (51'), Cernych (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Luxembourg and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luxembourg

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Turkey 3-3 Luxembourg
Thursday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Lithuania

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Faroe Islands
Thursday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Nations League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Luxembourg 2-0 Lithuania

 Despite conceding late on to Turkey on Thursday, Luxembourg should take plenty of confidence from their recent results and end the Nations League campaign on a high. Lithuania, on the other hand, will surely welcome the end of it, with relegation at least providing them with an opportunity to win more matches next time around. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.44%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.

Result
LuxembourgDrawLithuania
48.27% (0.687 0.69) 22.09% (-0.254 -0.25) 29.64% (-0.433 -0.43)
Both teams to score 65.83% (0.67099999999999 0.67)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.97% (0.995 1)34.02% (-0.997 -1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.11% (1.118 1.12)55.89% (-1.121 -1.12)
Luxembourg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.4% (0.607 0.61)14.6% (-0.609 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.31% (1.155 1.16)42.68% (-1.158 -1.16)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.08% (0.236 0.24)22.92% (-0.238 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.31% (0.348 0.35)56.69% (-0.348 -0.35)
Score Analysis
    Luxembourg 48.27%
    Lithuania 29.64%
    Draw 22.09%
LuxembourgDrawLithuania
2-1 @ 9.13% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.44% (-0.194 -0.19)
2-0 @ 6.2% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.85% (0.117 0.12)
3-2 @ 4.31% (0.116 0.12)
3-0 @ 3.97% (0.052 0.05)
4-1 @ 2.82% (0.114 0.11)
4-2 @ 2.07% (0.098 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.91% (0.065 0.07)
5-1 @ 1.08% (0.066 0.07)
4-3 @ 1.02% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 48.27%
1-1 @ 9.49% (-0.217 -0.22)
2-2 @ 6.72% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.35% (-0.175 -0.18)
3-3 @ 2.12% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 22.09%
1-2 @ 6.99% (-0.109 -0.11)
0-1 @ 4.93% (-0.222 -0.22)
0-2 @ 3.63% (-0.137 -0.14)
1-3 @ 3.43% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.3% (0.042 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.78% (-0.055 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.26% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.22% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 29.64%

How you voted: Luxembourg vs Lithuania

Luxembourg
79.7%
Draw
13.9%
Lithuania
6.3%
79
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2022 5pm
League C1
Lithuania
0-2
Luxembourg

Lasickas (54'), Slivka (61'), Petkevicius (81'), Dolznikov (90+3')
Sinani (44', 78')
Chanot (81')
Jun 7, 2019 7.45pm
Group B
Lithuania
1-1
Luxembourg
Novikovas (74')
Mikoliunas (5'), Novikovas (29'), Golubickas (39'), Vorobjovas (57'), Laukzemis (71'), Klimavicius (85')
Mikoliunas (42'), Vorobjovas (94')
Rodrigues (21')
Carlson (27'), Thill (76'), Malget (85')
Mar 22, 2019 7.45pm
Group B
Luxembourg
2-1
Lithuania
Barreiro (45'), Rodrigues (55')
Martins (30'), Carlson (70'), Sinani (86')
Cernych (14')
Mikoliunas (45'), Valskis (86')
rhs 2.0
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