UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Jun 4, 2022 at 5pm UK

LFF Stadium, Vilnius

Lithuania
0 - 2
Luxembourg

Lasickas (54'), Slivka (61'), Petkevicius (81'), Dolznikov (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sinani (44', 78')
Chanot (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Lithuania and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

Last Game: Lithuania 0-6 Turkey
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Faroe Islands vs. Lithuania
Saturday, June 11 at 5pm in Nations League

Luxembourg

Last Six:

Last Game: Faroe Islands 0-1 Luxembourg
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Luxembourg vs. Turkey
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	0	0	0
2	Faroe Islands	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Lithuania	0	0	0

We said: Lithuania 1-2 Luxembourg

Both minnow nations have struggled to put together strong runs of form, but they will be hoping that their upcoming Nations League fixtures will provide them with an opportunity to turn their fortunes around. The visitors will head into Saturday's game as the slight favourites and we can see them coming away with a slender victory in Vilnius. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.1%) and 2-3 (4.66%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 2-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.

Result
Lithuania	Draw	Luxembourg
37.33% ( 0)	21.41% ( -0.01)	41.25% ( 0)

Both teams to score 71.69% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.35% (

0.04)

27.64% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.7% (

0.05)

48.3% (

-0.05)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.92% (

0.02)

16.08% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.53% (

0.04)

45.47% (

-0.04)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.43% (

0.02)

14.57% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.36% (

0.03)

42.63% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Lithuania 37.34%

Luxembourg 41.25%

Draw 21.41%

Lithuania	Draw	Luxembourg
2-1 @ 7.54% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.42% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.91% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.09% Other @ 3.71% Total : 37.34%	1-1 @ 8.25% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.84% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.72% Total : 21.41%	1-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.1% 2-3 @ 4.66% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.79% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.46% ( 0) 2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1.37% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.34% 1-5 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.54% Total : 41.25%