We say: Croatia 1-1 Portugal
With Martinez already sending a few world-class troops home, and Portugal having nothing but personal pride on the line, it would not be surprising to see a hint of complacency creep into the visitors' game.
As a result, Croatia - as inconsistent as they have been - should be more than capable of accruing the point that they require to join the Selecao in the Nations League quarter-finals.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portugal win with a probability of 50.14%. A draw has a probability of 25.2% and a win for Croatia has a probability of 24.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12%), while for a Croatia win it is 1-0 (7.63%).