Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 52.04%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 25.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Gateshead |
52.04% ( 0.01) | 22.68% ( 0) | 25.28% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 59.79% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.67% ( -0) | 40.33% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.3% ( -0) | 62.7% ( 0.01) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.4% ( 0) | 15.6% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.42% ( 0.01) | 44.58% ( -0) |
Gateshead Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.84% ( -0.01) | 29.16% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.9% ( -0.01) | 65.1% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Gateshead |
2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.45% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.85% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.99% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.86% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.72% 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 3.72% Total : 52.04% | 1-1 @ 10.41% 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.61% 0-2 @ 3.45% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 3.3% Total : 25.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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