Two mid-table Ligue 1 teams meet in the Coupe de France round of 16 on Friday evening as Nantes welcome Brest to the Stade de la Beaujoire.
The hosts comfortably progressed past a lower-league side in the previous round, whilst the visitors face their second top-tier opponent in a row.
Match preview
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Nantes earned their first league win of 2022 last weekend as they edged a dramatic six-goal thriller at home to Lorient.
Goals from Andrei Girotto, Randal Kolo Muani, Osman Bukari and Willem Geubbels saw Les Canaris run out 4-2 winners in a Breton derby that burst into life in the second half, as they sent their neighbours down into the relegation zone.
Things were somewhat calmer in the previous round of the cup as Antoine Kombouare's men predictably saw off fourth-tier AS Vitre 2-0 with Geubbels on the scoresheet again, securing the result after Ludovic Blas had opened the scoring.
That result came after having nearly fallen at the third-round stage for the second consecutive year, though, Nantes requiring penalties to progress past Ligue 2's Sochaux.
Now a top-tier side will really test their mettle as they aim to win the Coupe de France for the first time since the turn of the century.
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However, it is a top-tier side who they have beaten in their previous four meetings.
Brest have already lost 3-1 to Nantes this season, back in September, to add to the 4-1 and 3-1 defeats they suffered last campaign and yet another 3-1 during a summer friendly.
So, the signs do not look overly good for Michel Der Zakarian and his side, but they did also pick up their first league win of the year at the weekend.
An own goal at the very start of the match and a penalty at the very end was enough to secure a 2-0 victory over stuttering champions Lille and solidify their place in mid-table, with a four-point gap now back to Reims in 14th.
Les Pirates also dealt with far tougher opposition in the previous round of the cup, two penalties and a stoppage-time goal from Jeremy Le Douaron sealing a 3-0 win over Bordeaux and sealing a spot in the final 16 for the first time since 2015.
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Team News
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Nantes will still be missing Jean-Charles Castelletto with Cameroon having advanced to the quarter-final stage at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Charles Traore and Kalifa Coulibaly's involvement at the tournament will depend on Mali's match with Equatorial Guinea, but Moses Simon is already on the way home after Nigeria were knocked out.
The forward will likely come straight back into the starting XI if deemed fit to do so.
Brest's Steve Mounie returned to the front two to partner Le Douaron in the game against Lille and got himself on the scoresheet, so will surely retain his place on Friday.
Romain Del Castillo and Sebastien Cibois are out with groin and achilles injuries respectively, whilst Denys Bain remains a doubt having missing the previous two games with COVID-19.
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Merlin, Corchia, Girotto, Fabio; Coco, Chirivella, Moutoussamy, Geubbels, Simon; Kolo Muani
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Brassier, Herelle, Duverne; Faivre, Magnetti, Agoume, Honorat; Mounie, Douaron
We say: Nantes 2-1 Brest
Both sides have the momentum of a win at the weekend to work with, but Nantes have home advantage and an impressive recent record against Les Pirates. Therefore, we are backing them to secure a spot in the quarter-finals, albeit by a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Brest had a probability of 30.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
