Portuguese defending champions Sporting Lisbon are back in action in the Primeira Liga this Saturday when they face Maritimo at the Estadio do Maritimo.
O Maior das Ilha will head into this game seeking to get one over the visitors having lost each of the last three meetings between the teams.
Match preview
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Maritimo continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of a rejuvenated Famalicao side last Sunday.
Simon Banza netted in the opening seven minutes to put the Vila Nova ahead and when Joel Tagueu was presented with an opportunity to level matters from the penalty spot in the 45th minute, he was denied by an inspired Luiz Junior between the sticks.
O Maior das Ilha have now failed to win four of their last five league outings — losing two and claiming two draws — with a 3-0 win at Arouca on February 14 being the only exception.
With 28 points from 23 games, Maritimo are currently ninth in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with Portimonense and 12 points off Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
While Vasco Seabra's men will look to arrest this slump in form, next up is an opposing side who have won 14 of the last 18 meetings between the sides since 2010, including each of their most recent three encounters.
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Sporting Lisbon, on the other hand, returned to winning ways last Sunday when they comfortably edged out Estoril Praia 3-0 at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
In a game where Raul Silva saw red, Pedro Goncalves broke the deadlock in the 40th minute to hand the hosts a first-half lead, before Matheus Reis and Pablo Sarabia scored in a five-minute spell in the second half to cap off a fine team display.
Prior to that, Ruben Amorim's side saw their Champions League dreams suffer a major blow as they fell to a humbling 5-0 defeat against Manchester City in the first leg of their round-of-16 clash on February 15.
Sporting Lisbon now head into Saturday's game unbeaten in each of their last four Primeira Liga games, claiming three wins and one draw since a 2-1 loss at the hands of Braga on January 22.
With 57 points from 23 games, the Leoes are currently second in the league table, six points above third-placed Benfica and six adrift of fellow rivals Porto at the summit of the standings.
Sporting Lisbon follow Saturday's game with a home tie against Porto in the first leg of their Taca de Portugal semi-final clash on Match 2, while Maritimo visit the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas to face Moreirense in round 25 of the Primeira Liga.
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Team News
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Swedish forward Tim Soderstrom could make his long-awaited return to action this weekend as he was an unused substitute in the defeat to Famalicao last time out having recently recovered from a muscle injury.
However, veteran midfielder Edgar Costa is out of contention for O Maior das Ilha as he continues his spell on the sidelines after picking up an injury in January's game against Porto.
Brazilian defender Winck will also play no part for O Maior das Ilha after receiving his marching orders in the game against Famalicao last time out.
Meanwhile, Sporting Lisbon will be boosted by the return of Ricardo Esgaio, who is available for selection after missing the game against Estoril Praia through a one-match suspension for accumulated yellow card bookings.
On the injury front, Manuel Ugarte is a doubt for Amorim's side after the Uruguayan youngster was forced off the pitch through injury in the aforementioned game.
With 13 goal involvements in 19 league appearances, Paris Saint-Germain loanee Sarabia has settled in nicely in the Portuguese top flight and we expect the Spaniard to lead the attack once again.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; China, M Costa, Junior, V Costa; Pelagio, Guitane, Guitane, Beltrame; Alipour, Tagueu
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Inacio, Neto, Feddal; Porro, Nunes, Braganca, Reis; Paulinho, Goncalves, Sarabia
We say: Maritimo 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon responded to their Champions League humiliation in fine fashion as they secured a dominant victory over Estoril Praia last time out. Next up for the defending champions is a trip to an inconsistent Maritimo side who have managed just one win from their last five games. While they face rivals Porto in the Taca de Portugal next week, we expect Amorim to name a strong side on Saturday and we are tipping them to come away with all three points and extend their dominance in this fixture.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 51.97%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 2-1 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
