Second meets third in a truly tantalising battle at the top of the Ligue 1 table this weekend as Lyon welcome reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain to the Groupama Stadium.
The two giants of the French game both sit three points behind Lille in the title race, and the result of this game could go a long way in determining who will be lifting the trophy aloft come the end of the season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Lyon have not quite been able to demonstrate the early-season consistency that propelled them to the top of the table since the turn of the year, but Rudi Garcia's men are in no position to pass up a golden opportunity to dethrone PSG and potentially signal the beginning of a new era in the French football scene.
Les Gones and their overwhelmingly successful 4-3-3 setup have gone about their business with professionalism and humility, but their hopes of silverware took another hit last weekend as they could only take a point from their battle with Reims, as Mathieu Cafaro seemed to have won the tie for Les Rouges et Blancs before Tino Kadewere headed home deep into injury time at the Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Garcia's men managed to move level on points with PSG after the champions inexplicably lost to Nantes in their most recent league outing, but Garcia will no doubt be viewing that game as a missed opportunity to put pressure on Lille, especially seeing as the leaders played out a stalemate of their own with fourth-placed Monaco last time out.
Top spot could be there for the taking for Lyon this weekend, but they would need relegation-threatened Nimes to pull off the shock of all shocks at Lille to be in with a chance of rising to the summit, but they welcome PSG to the Groupama Stadium having gone unbeaten in their last five across all competitions and losing just one of their most recent nine in the top flight.
Garcia's men have been far from perfect on home soil this term - losing two of their last five at the Groupama Stadium - while influential manager Garcia can only boast a 19% win percentage from his top-flight clashes with PSG, so Les Gones will no doubt head into this fixture as underdogs against the perennial, but faltering champions.
© Reuters
It is difficult to know for sure whether the intense conversations in the stands contributed to PSG's downfall against Nantes last weekend, but former Parisiens manager Antoine Kombouare needed no second invitation to take advantage of the confusion as he guided his Canaris outfit to a famous 2-1 win on the Parc des Princes turf last weekend.
Dialogue between sporting director Leonardo and manager Mauricio Pochettino eventually led to Angel Di Maria being hauled off and heading straight down the tunnel - with reports later that night confirming that the winger and Marquinhos's homes had been targeted by burglars - and even though PSG broke the deadlock through Julian Draxler, Randal Kolo Muani and Moses Simon both struck for Nantes to leave the champions shell-shocked.
That home defeat was yet another huge blow to their aspirations of a fourth successive Ligue 1 crown, but thanks to their remarkable goal difference of +44 - with 63 scored at the correct end of the pitch and only 19 shipped - PSG remain above Lyon in the rankings and hot on the trail of leaders Lille.
Pochettino's side quickly returned to winning ways at home in midweek, though, as Kylian Mbappe's 27th and 28th goals of the season helped them to a resounding 3-0 success over Lille in the Coupe de France, and they have taken nine points from their last three Ligue 1 away outings at Marseille, Dijon and Bordeaux - keeping clean sheets on each occasion too.
However, PSG are yet to prevail in any of their league battles with the top-four sides this season, and a Kadewere winner was enough for Lyon to march to victory on the champions' turf back in December, so the Parisiens faithful will certainly not be feeling as optimistic about this fixture as they may have done in seasons gone by.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Lyon left-back Maxwell Cornet was one of three changes that paid dividends at half time for Garcia against Reims, and the Lyon manager has affirmed that there is no concern over the 24-year-old after he was forced off in the dying seconds with suspected cramp.
The hosting manager has announced that he has almost everyone available for the visit of PSG, and Cornet should be given the nod at left-back over Mattia De Sciglio, while Kadewere is sure to replace Rayan Cherki out wide.
Maxence Caqueret's 45-minute cameo was a shining light in the Reims draw compared with Houssem Aouar's dissatisfactory first half, and the former should be trusted from the first whistle this week after Aouar picked up a muscular problem.
PSG's star attacker Neymar is inching ever closer to a return from a groin problem, and while he was not ready to take part against Lille, Pochettino believes that the winger has a fighting chance of making the cut this weekend.
However, Wednesday's first goalscorer Mauro Icardi was replaced by Mbappe after sustaining a thigh problem, and he is not expected to take part in this top-of-the-table clash.
Thilo Kehrer, Pablo Sarabia and Juan Bernat complete the visitors' absentee list, with Mbappe, Marco Verratti and Alessandro Florenzi all expected to return to the first XI against Lyon.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Denayer, Marcelo, Cornet; Mendes, Caqueret, Paqueta; Kadewere, Depay, Toko Ekambi
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Florenzi, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Kurzawa; Gueye, Paredes; Di Maria, Verratti, Kean; Mbappe
We say: Lyon 1-1 Paris Saint-Germain
PSG's record against the title-chasing teams this season does not make for good reading for their supporters, and while their cup result in midweek was certainly a positive one, they have had little time to recuperate for this battle. Lyon have not exactly been as consistent as they would have liked either, but a fully-fit squad boosts the hosts' chances of getting something from this game, and we expect the two title rivals to walk away with a share of the spoils - a result which would do Lille the world of good.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 47.49%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 28.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
