This weekend brings the Californian derby, known as El Trafico, as Los Angeles Galaxy welcome Los Angeles FC to Dignity Health Sports Park in gameweek four of the Major League Soccer season.
The visitors are unbeaten so far this campaign but two draws and one win places them a point behind their hosts, who have recorded two victories along with one defeat in the Western Conference.
Match preview
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Greg Vanney's side made a solid start to their MLS season with back-to-back wins by the scoreline of 3-2 in their opening fixtures, but a 3-0 defeat to Seattle Sounders last time out has highlighted some defensive fragilities.
A quick flurry of goals within three minutes of each other from Raul Ruidiaz and Brad Smith saw the hosts go 2-0 up in that game, and the Sounders managed to create 17 chances in front of Jonathan Bond's goal.
Nine shots on target in total for LA Galaxy's opponents ended with a third goal and a second in the game for Ruidiaz deep into stoppage time at the end of the second half, to condemn Vanney's side to their first defeat of the season.
Galaxy have now conceded seven goals in their opening three matches which is the joint-worst record, along with bottom-placed side Minnesota, in the Western Conference.
Last season the side finished 10th in their regional division but a 20th-placed finish in the overall national league will be something the club will be desperate to improve on this year.
An unbeaten start to the MLS season for Bob Bradley's side gives them a better defensive record than their Los Angeles rivals, as LAFC have only conceded two goals in their first three fixtures.
On Saturday, LA travelled to Houston where they played out a 1-1 draw after Corey Baird's 55th-minute opener was cancelled out by Tyler Pasher's strike just two minutes later.
Attacker Baird took his goal tally to two for the season with that strike and he will be keen to make a positive impression on Bradley as he only joined the club in January from Real Salt Lake.
Los Angeles FC's inaugural season in the MLS was only three seasons ago and they have been an impactful side in the division having claimed top spot in the Western Conference in 2019.
The last El Trafico match was played in October 2020 when LA beat Galaxy 2-0, the strikes that day coming from Danny Musovski and Carlos Vela.
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Team News
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Galaxy midfielder Sebastian Lletget is available for selection after serving his two-match ban for using homophobic language towards a teammate last month. Samuel Grandsir came into Vanney's side in the absence of Lletget.
Former Manchester United striker Javier Hernandez has made a flying start to the MLS season after his brace in Galaxy's opening game was followed up with a hat-trick against New York Red Bulls in gameweek two.
Vanney could decide to make defensive changes after their 3-0 defeat to league leaders Seattle Sounders and the Galaxy boss has not named the same back four in any of their fixtures so far.
Los Angeles FC captain Carlos Vela has missed his side's last two games with a hamstring injury and remains a doubt for El Trafico on Sunday. Kwadwo Opoku has been filling in on the right side of LA's front three in his skipper's absence.
Striker Diego Rossi returned to the starting lineup against Houston after recovering from an injury, however Erik Duenas and Mohamed Traore missed out last time.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Villafana, DePuy, Steres, Araujo; Dos Santos, Alvares; Lletget, Vazquez, Zubak; Hernandez
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Sisniega; Palacios, Segura, Murillo, Farfan; Atuesta, Kaye, Blessing; Baird, Rossi, Opoku
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2 Los Angeles FC
LA Galaxy have demonstrated issues at the back and we do not think that they will be able to stop their visitors from getting onto the scoresheet, especially with Baird in good form.
However, with the attacking prowess of Hernandez, Galaxy have goals in themselves and he could be the key to getting his defence out of trouble and earning a point for his side.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 48.18%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.65%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
