Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 68.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 11.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.63%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.