MX23RW : Sunday, November 24 15:48:30| >> :120:69043:69043:
[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 45
Jul 19, 2020 at 2pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Leeds logo

Derby
1 - 3
Leeds

Martin (54')
Sibley (43')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Hernandez (56'), Shackleton (75'), Clarke (84' og.)

Preview: Derby County vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Derby County and Leeds United, including team news and predicted lineups.

Leeds United make the trip to Derby County on Sunday afternoon with the pressure off after sealing top spot in the Championship.

The Whites' promotion was confirmed on Friday and they were crowned champions less than 24 hours later, all without kicking a ball.


Match preview

Pascal Struijk and Jordan Stevens celebrate Leeds United's victory over Barnsley on July 16, 2020© Reuters

Sixteen years on from their Premier League relegation, Leeds are finally back in the big time - and as champions too courtesy of shock defeats on successive days for closest challengers West Bromwich Albion and Brentford.

It would not be Leeds United had they not had a slight wobble, which came in the form of a loss to Cardiff City and home draw with Luton Town in quick succession last month.

No harm was done, though, and unlike in previous years - not least last season when ironically losing a dramatic playoff semi to Derby - they have avoided any heartbreak this time around.

Leeds have won their last four matches, the last two of those by the same slender 1-0 scoreline against Swansea City and Barnsley.

The victory over Yorkshire rivals Barnsley was at times scrappy, and it took and own goal from Michael Sollbauer to earn the win, but it was very much a case of job done.

Derby County manager Phillip Cocu pictured © Reuters

Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to finish such a memorable season strongly against Derby and then Charlton Athletic, but they will also relish the rare experience of not having any pressure on their shoulders going into the final two games of the campaign.

Derby have been inextricably entwined with some of the most memorable Leeds headlines recently - from spygate to last season's playoffs - and they will no doubt be keen to bring their rivals back down to the ground with a bump in this match, particularly if there is the added ignominy of a guard of honour.

Phillip Cocu's men have lost three games in a row, with their 2-1 reverse against Cardiff City in midweek all but killing off their slim promotion hopes, which have now been dashed entirely by Saturday's results.

There is now a nine-point gap on the Bluebirds in sixth with six points to play for, so even wins over Leeds and Birmingham City would not be enough for the Rams to make the playoffs again.

While Derby came out on top in last season's incredible playoff clash, they have not beaten Leeds in any of their last four regular season meetings since October 2017.

Derby County's Championship form: WWDLLL

Leeds United's Championship form: WDWWWW


Team News

Leeds goalkeeper Kiko Casilla pictured in February 2020© Reuters

Influential midfielder Kalvin Phillips will play no part in Leeds' concluding fixtures due to a knee injury, so Ben White will operate in holding midfield.

Kiko Casilla has served an eight-game suspension for alleged racism, but he faces a battle in ousting Illan Meslier for these final two matches.

At the opposite end of the field, Mateusz Klich has been directly involved in five of Leeds' last nine away goals in the Championship and is certain to start this one.

Derby will welcome Martyn Waghorn back from suspension for Sunday's match, which will likely mean Chris Martin dropping down to the bench.

Jayden Bogle is another in contention to return in place of Max Lowe at right-back after replacing him against Cardiff.

Teenage midfielder Louie Sibley has enjoyed an impressive breakthrough campaign and is one for Leeds' defenders to watch out for.

Cocu has a decision to make in goal, meanwhile, after taking Ben Hamer out of the firing line in midweek - Kelle Roos the man to profit from that call.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Clarke, Davies, Lowe; Rooney, Bird; Knight, Sibley, Lawrence; Waghorn

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Cooper, Berardi, Dallas; White; Costa, Roberts, Klich, Harrison; Bamford


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Derby County 0-2 Leeds United

Leeds have won four of their last five away matches - as many as they managed in the previous 13 on the road - while Derby have lost three games in a row and are winless in four. The Whites are assured of top spot, but we fully expect them to kick on by picking up a 27th win of an incredible campaign.



ID:406897: cacheID:406897:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:restore:8839:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Restore Data
Share this article now:
Kalvin Phillips in action for Leeds United on October 23, 2019
Read Next:
Kalvin Phillips likely to miss Leeds run-in with knee injury
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
6pm
Vikings
@
Bears
6pm
Lions
@
Colts
6pm
Patriots
@
Dolphins
6pm
Buccaneers
@
Giants
6pm
Chiefs
@
Panthers
6pm
Titans
@
Texans
6pm
Cowboys
@
Washington
9.05pm
Broncos
@
Raiders
9.25pm
49ers
@
Packers
9.25pm
Cardinals
@
Seahawks
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!