As victory is the only option for Cagliari, the onus is on Claudio Ranieri's side to score at least once in Sunday's second leg. Though Bari failed to fully punish them in midweek, the Isolani were often caught out at the back, and if the home side can take the lead in front of almost 60,000 fans, that could be enough to make a miraculous return to Serie A. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 35.88%. A win for Bari had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.36%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Bari win was 1-0 (12.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cagliari in this match.

Result
Bari	Draw	Cagliari
34.7% ( -0.04)	29.41% ( 0.08)	35.88% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 43.72% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.79% (

-0.27)

63.21% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.38% (

-0.19)

82.62% (

0.19)

Bari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.73% (

-0.17)

34.27% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.03% (

-0.18)

70.97% (

0.18)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.51% (

-0.17)

33.48% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.88% (

-0.18)

70.12% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Bari 34.7%

Cagliari 35.88%

Draw 29.4%

Bari	Draw	Cagliari
1-0 @ 12.28% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.2% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.58% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 34.7%	1-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.4%	0-1 @ 12.55% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.87% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.48% Total : 35.88%