League Two

League Two | Gameweek 23

Mar 8, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
3 - 1
Swindon

Brown (17'), Grounds (26'), Jay (81')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Payne (90+3')
Davison (25'), Iandolo (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League Two clash between Exeter City and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

Last Six:

Last Game: Exeter 0-1 Port Vale
Saturday, May 7 at 3pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Forest Green Rovers	46	31	84
2	Exeter City	46	24	84
3	Bristol Rovers	46	22	80

Swindon Town

Last Six:

Last Game: Port Vale 1-0 Swindon (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, May 19 at 7.45pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Port Vale	46	21	78
6	Swindon Town	46	23	77
7	Mansfield Town	46	15	77

We said: Exeter City 1-1 Swindon Town

With Exeter suffering a slight wobble in their last two games, and Swindon being so impressive away from home, we can see the visitors getting a point from this big game at the top of the League Two table. Neither will want to risk a defeat so it should be a fairly tight encounter, and therefore we can see the two sides cancelling each other and finishing level on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Swindon Town
44.95%	25.54%	29.5%

Both teams to score 53.62%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.98%

50.02%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28%

72%

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.78%

22.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.36%

55.64%

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.93%

31.07%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.61%

67.39%

Score Analysis

Exeter City 44.95%

Swindon Town 29.5%

Draw 25.53%

Exeter City	Draw	Swindon Town
1-0 @ 10.38% 2-1 @ 9.13% 2-0 @ 7.81% 3-1 @ 4.58% 3-0 @ 3.92% 3-2 @ 2.68% 4-1 @ 1.72% 4-0 @ 1.47% 4-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.26% Total : 44.95%	1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.9% 2-2 @ 5.34% 3-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.53%	0-1 @ 8.07% 1-2 @ 7.09% 0-2 @ 4.72% 1-3 @ 2.76% 2-3 @ 2.08% 0-3 @ 1.84% Other @ 2.94% Total : 29.5%