Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.