Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.