Getafe have not beaten Atletico in La Liga since November 2011, which is an indication of the size of their task here; two of their last three meetings have actually finished level, including a 3-3 at Wanda Metropolitano last term, but we are backing Simeone's side to navigate their way to all three points on Sunday afternoon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 72.09%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 9.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.47%) and 3-0 (10.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for a Getafe win it was 0-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
0.3) 
-0.07) 
