Chapecoense come into their next Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A match on Sunday with only pride to play for when they host Juventude at Arena Conda.
Verdao held the reigning league champions Flamengo to a 2-2 draw on Monday, while Juve won for the first time since September 26, defeating Internacional 2-1.
Match preview
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With seven games remaining in the 2021 campaign and relegation assured, Felipe Paiva Endres can only hope that his side can play with a lot less pressure, because there is not any on this team from here on out, as they will be going down into Serie B next season.
Even though it was a short time in the top flight, lasting only one year, the team based in the Southern part of Brazil have put together a pair of solid performances, particularly on Monday when they took away two points from the two-time defending Serie A winners.
After being reduced to 10 men and a half-hour still to play, the players fought hard despite a barrage of pressure from Flamengo as they came away with a point for a second successive fixture.
They abandoned their previous formations of either five at the back or in midfield in that match, employing instead a 4-2-3-1 lineup which created a lot more chances for them up high but also left them more vulnerable in transition.
They put together a pair of solid defensive outings at the start of November, waiting for Corinthians and Cuiaba to come up them while trying to block them at every turn, which enabled the players to keep each game close, though they failed to create many clear-cut chances, with only two shots on target in each of those matches.
Chape still have not won at home, but they have looked livelier and sharper in all facets of the game in front of their fans, earning points in four of their last five encounters in Chapeco, with their only defeat over that stretch coming in mid-October, when a penalty in injury-time from Yago Pikachu took a point away from them.
Papo, who have been taking some baby steps forward of late, benefiting from a lucky break in mid-week as an own goal from Paulo Victor gave them a two-goal cushion, and they were able to hang on to move a little closer to Bahia in the race to avoid relegation.
With a game in hand on them, this could be their best opportunity to end a seven-match winless run away from home, losing their previous road fixture to Gremio 3-2.
Defensively, they have looked disorganised and overwhelmed when playing in enemy territory, conceding 21 shots on target in their previous three matches as the visitors, allowing three goals in each of those encounters.
On their current unbeaten run, Jair Ventura has given his opponents a different look each time, going with a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 versus Ceara and Bahia, which worked effectively in terms of neutralising their opponents as their ability to press helped them to limit both teams to a total of two shots on target.
On Wednesday, Ventura went with the most traditional 4-4-2 formation, which created some excellent opportunities in the box to put Internacional under duress.
Getting themselves out of their current relegation predicament will not be easy, as the remaining games for Juve following this clash on Sunday will be against sides who are at least four points or more above them in the standings, with five of those fixtures being against teams in the top half of the table.
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Team News
Kaio Nunes grabbed the headlines for the right and wrong reasons on Monday as the Chape midfielder scored twice in four minutes in the first half to put his team ahead, but in the second half, he received two cautions in eight minutes, leaving his teammates short-handed and having to hang on for the remainder of the match.
Vagner remains sidelined with a ruptured knee ligament, and Tiepo is unlikely to play again this year after sustaining a knee injury in the middle of June.
Their leading goalscorer Mike set up their opening goal versus Flamengo as he is now tied for first with two assists in this domestic campaign, while Anderson Leite also collected his second helper of 2021.
Dawhan scored his second goal of the year for Juve on Wednesday, putting him one back of Paulinho Boia and Guilherme Castilho, with the latter picking up one assist, his team-leading fourth of the season.
In their first meeting against Chape, Matheus Peixoto, who is no longer with the club, settled the match with a goal in the fourth minute as he was their top attacking threat this year with a team-leading seven strikes before his move to Metalist Kharkiv.
Douglas Friedrich replaced Marcelo Carne in goal earlier this week, Juan Quintero took the place of Vitor Mendes in central defence, and Wagner played alongside Ricardo Bueno in attack as Capixaba began on the substitutes bench.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Ribeiro, Joilson, Ignacio, Busanello; Junior, Santos; Mike, Silva, Geuvanio; Almeida
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Carne; Macedo, Quintero, Forster, Matheuzinho; Jadson, Dawhan, Ricardinho, Wescley; Capixaba, Wagner
We say: Chapecoense 2-1 Juventude
The pressure is off Chape for the remainder of the year, and they are playing with a lot more purpose, albeit in a season where they will be going down to the second tier of Brazilian football.
Juventude are a better side on paper than Verdao, but they give up far too many good opportunities on the road, and even the second-lowest scoring team in Serie A would be able to capitalise on the kind of mistakes that Juve have made.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 41.29%. A win for Juventude had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Juventude win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
