After each coming away with a victory this weekend, Juventude and Fluminense have a lot to play for when they face each other on Wednesday from Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Juve are tied with Bahia on 36 points but are in the final relegation position due to having one fewer win, while Flu are only four points back of an automatic berth in the 2022 Copa Libertadores after upsetting Palmeiras 2-1 on Sunday.
Match preview
© Reuters
The club from Caxias do Sul have been doing everything possible to avoid a descent into the second tier of Brazilian football, winning back-to-back fixtures for the first time since late June.
Technically their match on Sunday was not a must-win, but when you consider that they were facing a team in Chapecoense, who are dead last in the table and the fact that Bahia, who they are chasing, had a tough match against Flamengo, it is clear that there was a lot on the line.
To their credit Jair Ventura and his team rose to the occasion again, going in front after only two minutes of play and taking a two-goal lead before the half-hour mark, winning for the first time on the road since defeating Bragantino 2-1 in the middle of August.
While it had to have been a relief for Ventura to see his side pick up some points away from home, he and his team will relish the opportunity to climb out of relegation in front of their fans, where they are unbeaten in their last five matches.
Juve have cleaned up their defensive liabilities of late, conceding only once in their last four fixtures after allowing 11 goals in their opening five matches last month, including three on three separate occasions to Sport Recife, Flamengo and Gremio.
To get themselves out of relegation, they need to maintain the same kind of poise and intensity which enabled them to win their previous two games because their schedule down the stretch will not be easy, with only three of their final seven fixtures taking place at home, not to mention the fact that four of their remaining six league games following this one will be against sides in the top six (Atletico Mineiro, Corinthians, Bragantino and Fortaleza).
© Reuters
This weekend, Fluminense were able to do something that they had only previously done once this year in the Brasileiro Serie A, come back to win a match despite conceding first.
Before Sunday, allowing the opening goal had been like a dagger through the heart of this team, as Flu had failed to score in six successive matches in all competitions when going behind first, so to be able to turn around their fortunes against a side in Palmeiras who had won six straight contests has to be a massive boost of confidence for Marcao and his team.
Fluzao were full marks for their victory over the weekend as some good tactical adjustments at half time made an immediate impact, as they levelled the match at one in the opening minute of the second half and out hustled Verdao, frustrating the finalists for the Copa Libertadores and forcing them to commit 20 fouls.
For years, this team had been a middle of the road one in Brazil, finishing just outside the top 10 in five consecutive domestic campaigns from 2015-2019 before coming in fifth place a year ago.
With six matches to go, Flu are back in the top half of the table, and they are not too far behind fifth-place Corinthians, trailing them by a mere five points, while only four points separate them from sixth, which guarantees them a spot in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores next year.
Even though they cannot match their points total of 64 from a season ago, they still have an opportunity to finish in the top half of the standings in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since 2011 and 2012 when they went from third (2011) to league champions (2012).
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Juve will be missing the presence of holding midfielder Dawhan, as the Brazilian, who has scored three goals in 15 appearances this year, will be out due to a yellow card suspension.
Guilherme Castilho got his fourth of the year in the second minute on Sunday, while Vitor Mendes gave them some insurance with his first of the domestic campaign.
Mendes was the only newcomer to the starting 11 this past weekend, as he replaced Juan Quintero in central defence.
Yago Felipe notched a brace in the second half for Flu to move into second on the team with three strikes, one behind Luiz Henrique, while Juan Cazares picked up his first assist on Sunday on the winning goal two minutes before injury time.
Lucca, who has three goals for Flu domestically this year, scored against them in their last meeting with Juve as his own goal in the 68th minute cancelled out the opener from Jhon Arias.
Fred, who set up the equaliser on Sunday for his team, will not be available for this one after receiving a late caution in each half versus Palestra.
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Matheus, Forster, Mendes, Macedo; Wescley, Jadson; Sorriso, Castilho, Wagner; Bueno
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
M. Felipe; S. Xavier, Claro, Braz, M. Xavier; Y. Felipe, Cazares; Paulista, Teixeira, Arias; Kennedy
We say: Juventude 1-1 Fluminense
These teams are desperately hoping to move up the table for different reasons, and even though the sense of urgency should be greater for Juve, looking to stave off relegation, Flu are unbeaten in their last three visits to Juventude.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 38.4%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (11.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Juventude in this match.
