Santos can increase their chances of finishing in the top half of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings when they travel to Estadio Jose Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre to face Internacional on Sunday.
Colorado have lost three consecutive league matches and are ninth in the table with three games remaining, two points above Santos, who won at home by a 2-0 score for the third straight time, defeating Fortaleza.
Match preview
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As we head into the stretch run of the domestic campaign in Brazil, it has to be a disappointment for Inter, who will finish well below their pace from 2020 when they came in second with 70 points.
It is clear that this is a good team, who have the talent to compete with the top sides in the league, but for one reason or another, they are lacking that little extra that can make the difference between winning and losing, as evidenced by the fact that they have lost three of their previous four domestic affairs by a one-goal margin.
On Wednesday, Diego Aguirre saw his team win a lot of balls deep in their end and string together plenty of passes, with a total of 70% possession throughout the game, but they could not find that finishing touch to make their build-ups count.
Since the middle of August, they have only lost one of their previous 10 home fixtures, including consecutive clean sheets in September when it looked like they might be turning the corner.
They have been a little too slow at the beginning of recent matches, conceding twice in the opening 11 minutes in a 2-1 loss to Flamengo and then conceding a penalty which Fred converted for Fluminense before that game was even five minutes old.
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If only all of their games were played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, things would be looking a lot better for Fabio Carille and his side.
On Thursday, Peixe put on another dominant performance at home, holding the fifth-place team Fortaleza to only two shots on target as they have posted four shutouts in their previous five home games.
Since he took over as their coach in September, this team have looked a lot more well-structured with a solid defensive shape, and that should be enough to keep them in Serie A beyond this season.
Coming into this contest, Santos have not won a match versus Inter at their home stadium in Porto Alegre since 2013 when they beat them 2-1.
They are currently holding down the second-last Copa Sudamericana position for next year, but in order to maintain that standing, they will need to play with a lot more poise and composure away from home than they have in recent matches, winning only one of their last eight encounters as the visitors, and failing to score on five of those occasions.
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Team News
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Rodrigo Moledo will have to sit this one out once again for Colorado due to a cruciate ligament rupture, while Paulo Victor will be suspended following his late red card in their match played earlier this week and Victor Cuesta picked up a caution which means that he will miss this game as well.
Inter have not been getting enough contributions from their top guys, especially Yuri Alberto, who is tied with his teammate Edenilson for the team lead in goals with 11 but has not found the back of the net since mid-October when he tallied an insurance marker in a 3-1 win over America Mineiro.
On Thursday, Marcos Leonardo tallied twice for Peixe, his second and third goals of the season, putting him even with Madson and Gabriel Pirani in that department and only two behind Carlos Sanchez and Marcos Guilherme, who are tied for second.
Sandry saw his first action in quite a while, coming on as a late substitute, replacing Felipe Jonatan, while Kevin Malthus remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament rupture and John is still out with a meniscal problem.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Moises, Rocha, Mendez, Heitor; Edenilson, Dourado; Patrick, Taison, Maia; Palacios
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Kaiky, Felipe, Boza; Guilherme, Pirani, Sandry, Braga, Sanchez; Tardelli, Angelo
We say: Internacional 2-0 Santos
Even though only two points currently separate these two clubs in the standings, Inter are the superior side who can move the ball up the field quicker and technically are more assertive both on the ball and in the final third.
Santos can stay in most of their games, but they are not as calm and organized away from home, scoring only two goals in their last eight road games in league play, while conceding six.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 55.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Santos had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
