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SPAL logo
Serie A | Gameweek 33
Jul 16, 2020 at 8.45pm UK
Stadio Paolo Mazza
Inter logo

SPAL
0 - 4
Inter Milan


Valdifiori (46'), Murgia (51')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Candreva (37'), Biraghi (55'), Sanchez (60'), Gagliardini (74')
Bastoni (32'), Biraghi (54'), Ranocchia (62')

Preview: SPAL vs. Inter Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Serie A meeting between SPAL and Inter Milan, including team news and predicted lineups.

Inter Milan make the trip to SPAL on Thursday evening with the opportunity to strengthen their hold of second place in the Serie A standings.

Meanwhile, beginning the week 11 points adrift of safety, SPAL know that only wins will do if they are to stand any chance of remaining in Italy's top flight.


Match preview

Inter Milan coach Antonio Conte pictured on September 14, 2019© Reuters

Having watched Juventus, Lazio and Atalanta BC all drop points over the weekend, Inter were aware that had been given an opportunity to make headway in their efforts to finish in the top two come the end of the season.

While they trailed Torino at the break on Monday night, Antonio Conte's half-time comments worked a treat as his side netted three times in the space of 13 minutes to end their two-game winless streak.

With six matches remaining, I Nerazzurri trail Juve by eight points, realistically leaving them to focus on fending off the teams directly below them for the time being.

Nevertheless, at a time when Inter have recorded just four wins from their last nine in all competitions, Conte will be demanding a strong finish to the campaign after losing ground on Juve since the turn of the year.

Conte will also now hope that he can rely on Alexis Sanchez, who has turned his season around with one goal and five assists since the resumption.

From SPAL's perspective, there will be a certain level of acceptance that they will almost certainly be playing at the second tier in the coming months after collecting just 19 points from 32 matches.

Five defeats have been recorded from six matches since the resumption, with the 2-2 draw against AC Milan a result of conceding twice in the final 11 minutes.

Since that disappointment, they have conceded eight times in three games without finding the back of the net, leaving Luigi Di Biagio at odds over how to get a response from his players.

In reality, the SPAL head coach will already be thinking about next season, but there will also be a desire to get the better of a team who he represented for four years during his playing career.

SPAL Serie A form: LLDLLL

Inter Milan Serie A form: DWWLDW


Team News

Alexis Sanchez in action for Inter Milan on September 14, 2019© Reuters

With no risks likely to be taken on Romelu Lukaku, Sanchez should retain his place in the Inter attack alongside Lautaro Martinez.

Christian Eriksen is expected to shake off a minor fitness issue to replace Borja Valero, while Milan Skriniar is in line to come in for the suspended Diego Godin.

Antonio Candreva and Cristiano Biraghi are in contention to return in the wing-back positions.

As far as SPAL are concerned, Marco D'Alessandro is pushing for a recall on the right-hand side of midfield.

Alberto Cerri may partner Andrea Petagna, coming in as a replacement for Sergio Floccari.

SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Cionek, Vicari, Bonifazi, Reca; D'Alessandro, Valdifiori, Dabo, Strefezza; Cerri, Petagna

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Candreva, Galgiadini, Brozovic, Biraghi; Eriksen; Sanchez, Martinez


Sports Mole Logo

We say: SPAL 0-3 Inter Milan

While Inter may make changes for this clash, everything still points to this contest being one-way traffic. Although the title remains an unlikely target, Conte will have told his players that they are fighting for their places next season, something which should inspire a professional performance.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 67.59%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 13.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a SPAL win it was 1-0 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.


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Milan Skriniar in action for Inter Milan in January 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta1391334161828
2Inter Milan1384131141728
3Napoli128221991026
4Fiorentina1274125101525
5Juventus136702171425
6Lazio1281325141125
7AC Milan125432014619
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma132651721-412
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona134091732-1512
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108


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