Gremio travel to Sport Recife on Thursday evening, with both sides searching for their first Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A victory of the season.
The hosts have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, while the visitors have only claimed victory in one of their previous six outings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Sport Recife are yet to open their account in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, having suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat away at Fortaleza on Monday.
Umberto Louzer's side struggled to pose a threat in the final third and failed to have a single shot on target throughout the match.
With the scores level deep into the second half, Recife substitute Maxwell was shown a straight red card in the 73rd minute, after the referee and VAR deemed the winger to have stamped on Matheus Vargas.
A disappointing evening then got even worse, when Iago Maidana's handball inside the penalty area was spotted by the referee, who had no other choice than to point to the spot; Wellington Paulista converted the resulting spot-kick in the 79th minute, sealing all three points for the hosts.
That result has seen the Lions drop down to 16th place in the table, just above the relegation zone on goal difference.
Despite defeat, Sport Recife can take some confidence into Thursday's game, as they are unbeaten in their last four meetings against Gremio, and a win could see them climb as high as eighth in the table.
© Reuters
Gremio suffered their second successive league defeat when they lost 1-0 at home to Athletico Paranaense last weekend.
Despite dominating the game with 64% possession, the hosts were frustrated throughout the 90 minutes and Matheus Babi's effort on the stroke of half time proved to be the winning goal for the visitors.
The Immortal Tricolor are not currently living up to their nickname, having lost their opening two Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A fixtures, which as a result sees them sitting 19th in the table.
After a disappointing sixth-placed finish last season, Gremio are hoping to improve this campaign, though head coach Tiago Nunes will need to find a way to motivate his players quickly if they are to establish themselves at the top end of the division.
Gremio have failed to win each of their last four away meetings with Sport Recife, but a victory on Thursday could see them climb out of the relegation zone and as high as 14th in the table.
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
With Sport Recife winger Maxwell suspended, attacking midfield trio Marquinhos, Gustavo and Paulinho could all be in line to keep their places in the starting XI.
Either Mikael or Andre is expected to lead the line up front, with the latter set to be given the nod on Thursday, while experienced forward Santiago Trellez, who is yet to score in 2021, is likely to remain on the bench.
Ricardinho and Marcao are set to shield the back four in defensive midfield roles once again, though Ronaldo Henrique will be hoping he can force his way into the starting lineup.
As for Gremio, 20-year-old forward Ricardinho Viana – who has found the net nine times in his last 17 appearances across all competitions – could be handed a start in attack, although 35-year-old Diego Souza, who has scored 13 goals in 2021, is set to keep his place in Nunes's side.
He could be supported by the attacking threat of wingers Leo Pereira and Leo Chu, with both players still looking to get going for the season.
Jean Pyerre could return to the first XI and play in the number 10 role, while midfielders Matheus Henrique and Thiago dos Santos are expected to sit in front of a back four, which could include former Bayern Munich right-back Rafinha.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Maylson; Hayner, Thyere, Sabino, Sander; Ricardinho, Marcao; Paulinho, Gustavo, Marquinhos; Andre
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Rafinha, Geromel, Kannemann, Cortez; Henrique, Dos Santos; Chu, Pyerre, Pereira; Souza
We say: Sport Recife 2-1 Gremio
Neither team have begun the campaign the way they would had hoped, but at such an early stage in the season, there is still plenty of time to get back to winning ways and climb the league table.
Sport Recife have won five of their last eight meetings against Gremio, scoring at least twice in each victory, and with that in mind, we feel that they may edge a tight encounter at the Estadio Ilha do Retiro.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
