Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

San Marino
1 - 2
Denmark

Golinucci (61')
Fabbri (70'), Capicchioni (83'), Di Maio (88'), Mularoni (90+7'), Mularoni (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Hojlund (42'), Poulsen (70')
Andersen (65')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between San Marino and Denmark, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: N. Ireland 3-0 San Marino
Saturday, October 14 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

Denmark

All competitions

Last Game: Denmark 3-1 Kazakhstan
Saturday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

We said: San Marino 0-3 Denmark

Denmark could potentially secure a top-two finish in Group H, and with it their place at Euro 2024, so they should start strong in Serravalle before easing off once victory is assured. Once again, it will be a case of no goals and no points for plucky San Marino. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 95.48%. A draw had a probability of 3.8% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 0-3 with a probability of 16.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (15.52%) and 0-2 (13.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (1.9%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (0.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.

Result
San Marino	Draw	Denmark
0.69% ( 0.08)	3.83% ( 0.02)	95.48% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 19.38% (

2.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.64% (

1.23)

24.36% (

-1.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.93% (

1.61)

44.07% (

-1.61)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

19.85% (

2.31)

80.15% (

-2.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

2.11% (

0.48)

97.88% (

-0.48)

Denmark Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.63% (

0.13)

2.37% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

88.76% (

0.47)

11.24% (

-0.47)

Score Analysis

San Marino 0.69%

Denmark 95.47%

Draw 3.83%

San Marino	Draw	Denmark
Other @ 0.69% Total : 0.69%	0-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.16) 1-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.36% Total : 3.83%	0-3 @ 16.59% ( -0.65) 0-4 @ 15.52% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 13.3% ( -0.72) 0-5 @ 11.61% ( -0.12) 0-6 @ 7.25% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.49) 0-7 @ 3.87% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.67% ( 0.35) 1-4 @ 3.44% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.24) 1-5 @ 2.57% ( 0.31) 0-8 @ 1.81% ( 0.06) 1-6 @ 1.6% ( 0.21) Other @ 4.18% Total : 95.47%