Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Education City Stadium

Croatia
1 - 0
Armenia

Budimir (43')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Piloyan (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Croatia and Armenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Latvia 0-2 Croatia
Saturday, November 18 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	7	7	16
2	Croatia	7	8	13
3	Wales	7	0	11
4	Armenia	7	-1	8
5	Latvia	8	-14	3

Armenia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Armenia 1-1 Wales
Saturday, November 18 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	7	7	16
2	Croatia	7	8	13
3	Wales	7	0	11
4	Armenia	7	-1	8
5	Latvia	8	-14	3

Although Armenia have little left to play for, the former Soviet nation have proven themselves tough opponents throughout much of their Group D campaign, and Croatia only won September's reverse fixture by a single goal. After losing for the first time at home in European Championship qualifying last month, the home side will be keen to reach Euro 2024 in style - but it may be a closer call than many observers expect. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 72.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 10.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Armenia
72.71% ( -0.23)	16.5% ( 0.11)	10.78% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 50.97% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.84% (

-0.22)

37.16% (

0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.64% (

-0.23)

59.36% (

0.23)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.1% (

-0.11)

8.89% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.59% (

-0.25)

30.4% (

0.25)

Armenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.95% (

0.06)

44.05% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.83% (

0.05)

80.16% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Croatia 72.7%

Armenia 10.78%

Draw 16.5%

Croatia	Draw	Armenia
2-0 @ 11.46% 1-0 @ 9.48% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 9.25% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.59% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.6% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 72.7%	1-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.96% Total : 16.5%	0-1 @ 3.21% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.01% Total : 10.78%