AEK Larnaca got the job done away from home last week and will head into Thursday looking to pick up where they dropped off in the first leg. We are backing them to make use of their home crowd advantage to claim the victory, albeit by another slender margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Larnaca win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Dnipro-1 had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an AEK Larnaca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Dnipro-1 win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AEK Larnaca would win this match.

Result
AEK Larnaca	Draw	Dnipro-1
37.49% ( 0.21)	26.31% ( 0.06)	36.2% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 53.18% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.5% (

-0.27)

51.5% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.7% (

-0.24)

73.3% (

0.24)

AEK Larnaca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.3% (

-0.01)

26.69% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.05% (

-0.01)

61.95% (

0.01)

Dnipro-1 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.55% (

-0.29)

27.44% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.07% (

-0.38)

62.93% (

0.38)

Score Analysis

AEK Larnaca 37.49%

Dnipro-1 36.2%

Draw 26.31%

AEK Larnaca	Draw	Dnipro-1
1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 37.49%	1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.09% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.2%