Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 36.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Tobol win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Basel in this match.