Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 27, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
St. Jakob-Park
Basel1 - 3Tobol
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Basel and Tobol.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: St Gallen 2-1 Basel
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Last Game: Honka 0-0 Tobol
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
| Team | Goals scored | Avg per game | Top scorer | |
| 1 | Lugano | 3 | 3.00 | Celar |
| 2 | Servette | 3 | 3.00 | Bedia |
| 3 | FC Zurich | 2 | 2.00 | Katic |
| 4 | St Gallen | 2 | 2.00 | Geubbels |
| 5 | Young Boys | 2 | 2.00 | Itten |
| 6 | Basel | 1 | 1.00 | Frei |
| 7 | Grasshopper | 1 | 1.00 | Ndenge |
| 8 | Lausanne | 1 | 1.00 | Balde |
| 9 | Winterthur | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 10 | Luzern | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 11 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 12 | Yverdon Sport | 0 | 0.00 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Tobol |
54.1% ( -0.11) | 22.52% ( 0.04) | 23.38% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 58.13% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.48% ( -0.11) | 41.51% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.08% ( -0.11) | 63.91% ( 0.11) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.68% ( -0.08) | 15.32% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.94% ( -0.14) | 44.06% ( 0.14) |
| Tobol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.65% ( -0) | 31.35% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.29% ( 0) | 67.71% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Basel 54.1%
Tobol 23.38%
Draw 22.52%
| Basel | Draw | Tobol |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.45% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.88% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.83% Total : 54.1% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.52% | 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.57% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 23.38% |
How you voted: Basel vs Tobol
Basel
76.9%Draw
23.1%Tobol
0.0%13
