UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 27, 2023 at 6.30pm UK

St. Jakob-Park

Basel
1 - 3
Tobol

(Tobol win 4-3 on aggregate)

Barry (25')
Calafiori (45+3')
Barry (56'), Calafiori (68')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Deble (57' pen.), Orazov (62'), Chesnokov (71')
Ilic (44'), Zharynbetov (45+3'), Orazov (62')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Europa Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Basel and Tobol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions

Last Game: St Gallen 2-1 Basel
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Tobol

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Honka 0-0 Tobol
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

	Team	Goals scored	Avg per game	Top scorer
1	Lugano	3	3.00	Celar
2	Servette	3	3.00	Bedia
3	FC Zurich	2	2.00	Katic
4	St Gallen	2	2.00	Geubbels
5	Young Boys	2	2.00	Itten
6	Basel	1	1.00	Frei
7	Grasshopper	1	1.00	Ndenge
8	Lausanne	1	1.00	Balde
9	Winterthur	0	0.00
10	Luzern	0	0.00
11	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	0	0.00
12	Yverdon Sport	0	0.00

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Basel	Draw	Tobol
54.1% ( -0.11)	22.52% ( 0.04)	23.38% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 58.13% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.48% (

-0.11)

41.51% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.08% (

-0.11)

63.91% (

0.11)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.68% (

-0.08)

15.32% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.94% (

-0.14)

44.06% (

0.14)

Tobol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.65% (

-0)

31.35% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.29% (

67.71% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Basel 54.1%

Tobol 23.38%

Draw 22.52%

Basel	Draw	Tobol
2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.83% Total : 54.1%	1-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.52%	1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.57% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 23.38%