MX23RW : Saturday, November 23 21:10:25| >> :600:582167:582167:
Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Aston Villa logo
Conference League | Group Stage
Nov 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
AZ Alkmaar

Aston Villa
2 - 1
AZ

Carlos (61'), Watkins (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pavlidis (52')

The Match

Match Report

Aston Villa are one step closer to the Europa Conference League knockout stages as goals from Diego Carlos and Ollie Watkins help the Villans to victory over AZ Alkmaar.

Team News

Aston Villa make four changes for Thursday's Europa Conference League game with AZ Alkmaar.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Aston Villa and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Excelsior 1-1 AZ
Saturday, November 4 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawAZ Alkmaar
40.99% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01) 24.9% (0.0019999999999989 0) 34.11% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 57.69% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.43% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)45.57% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.11% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)67.89% (0.012 0.01)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.82% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)22.18% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.41% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)55.59% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.14% (0.0039999999999907 0)25.86% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.17% (0.0030000000000001 0)60.83%
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 40.99%
    AZ Alkmaar 34.11%
    Draw 24.9%
Aston VillaDrawAZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.8% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 8.64% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 6.5% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 3.26% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.99% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 1.66% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.23% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 40.99%
1-1 @ 11.68%
2-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.9%
1-2 @ 7.9% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 7.76% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.25% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 3.56% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.68%
0-3 @ 2.37% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.21% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 34.11%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs AZ

Aston Villa
83.8%
Draw
10.5%
AZ Alkmaar
5.7%
105
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
AZ
1-4
Aston Villa
Sadiq (65')
Mijnans (19'), Clasie (44'), Bazoer (90')
Bailey (13'), Tielemans (23'), Watkins (51'), McGinn (56')
Lenglet (45+1'), Bailey (86')
> Match Report
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7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
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11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
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15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
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19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
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