Conference League | Group Stage
Nov 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Aston Villa2 - 1AZ
The Match
Match Report
Aston Villa are one step closer to the Europa Conference League knockout stages as goals from Diego Carlos and Ollie Watkins help the Villans to victory over AZ Alkmaar.
Team News
Aston Villa make four changes for Thursday's Europa Conference League game with AZ Alkmaar.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Aston Villa and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Excelsior 1-1 AZ
Saturday, November 4 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Saturday, November 4 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
40.99% ( -0.01) | 24.9% ( 0) | 34.11% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 57.69% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
