The huge gulf in resources between the two clubs leaves Aston Villa clear favourites to progress after next week's second leg, but Hibs certainly will not make life easy for the Premier League side. On home soil, the Hibees have won both of their qualifying fixtures so far; however, stepping up in class will see them beaten by a team with a wealth of European experience - most notably in the dugout.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Hibernian had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.78%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Hibernian win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
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