Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 55.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
55.11% ( 1.74) | 23.23% ( 0.23) | 21.66% ( -1.97) |
Both teams to score 53.46% ( -3.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.37% ( -3.19) | 46.63% ( 3.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.11% ( -3.06) | 68.9% ( 3.06) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.22% ( -0.53) | 16.78% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.27% ( -0.95) | 46.74% ( 0.95) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.25% ( -3.56) | 35.76% ( 3.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.47% ( -3.85) | 72.53% ( 3.85) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
1-0 @ 10.71% ( 1.2) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.92) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.35) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.15% Total : 55.11% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.77) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.49) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.22% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.44) 0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.37) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.36) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.18) Other @ 1.89% Total : 21.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 23 |
2 | Liverpool | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
3 | Arsenal | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 |
4 | Aston Villa | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
5 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 17 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
7 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
9 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
10 | Fulham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
11 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
13 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
14 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
16 | Everton | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
17 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 2 |
20 | Southampton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 1 |
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