UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Group Stage

Sep 21, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszalka Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Legia
3 - 2
Aston Villa

Wszolek (3'), Muci (26', 51')
Kun (19'), Ribeiro (84'), Tobiasz (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Duran (6'), Digne (38')
Zaniolo (53'), Diaby (70')

Unai Emery: 'Aston Villa must learn from Legia Warsaw defeat'

Head coach Unai Emery admits that Aston Villa must learn quickly if they are to recover from their Europa Conference League defeat to Legia Warsaw.

Sep 21, 23:33

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Legia Warsaw

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia
Saturday, September 16 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Goals
for

Top scorers

Aston Villa

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.

Result
Legia Warsaw	Draw	Aston Villa
51.45% ( -0.1)	22.21% ( 0)	26.33% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 62.55% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.85% (

0.07)

37.15% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.65% (

0.07)

59.35% (

-0.07)

Legia Warsaw Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.33% (

-0.01)

14.66% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.18% (

-0.02)

42.82% (

0.02)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.3% (

0.11)

26.7% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.05% (

0.14)

61.95% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Legia Warsaw 51.45%

Aston Villa 26.33%

Draw 22.21%

Legia Warsaw	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.93% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 4.26% Total : 51.45%	1-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.21%	1-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.17% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.33%