Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.77%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 9.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.06%) and 0-3 (10.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.68%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
