Eredivisie | Gameweek 15

Dec 18, 2021 at 7pm UK

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ
4 - 1
Willem II

de Wit (9'), Wellenreuther (76' og.), Gudmundsson (86', 89')
Clasie (62'), Pavlidis (80')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kabangu (36')
Saddiki (31')
Michelis (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Willem II

After a slow start to the season, AZ Alkmaar have hit their stride in recent weeks and will be aiming to keep the juggernaut rolling and move into the European qualification places. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we predict they will claim all three points against a floundering Willem II side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 81.63%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 6.01%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.8%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Willem II
81.63%	12.36%	6.01%

Both teams to score 43.81%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.77%

34.23%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.87%

56.13%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.65%

6.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

76.15%

23.86%

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.77%

53.23%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.21%

86.79%

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 81.61%

Willem II 6.01%

Draw 12.36%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Willem II
2-0 @ 12.84% 3-0 @ 11.8% 1-0 @ 9.32% 4-0 @ 8.14% 2-1 @ 8.1% 3-1 @ 7.45% 4-1 @ 5.13% 5-0 @ 4.49% 5-1 @ 2.83% 3-2 @ 2.35% 6-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.62% 6-1 @ 1.3% Other @ 4.18% Total : 81.61%	1-1 @ 5.88% 0-0 @ 3.38% 2-2 @ 2.55% Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.36%	0-1 @ 2.13% 1-2 @ 1.85% Other @ 2.03% Total : 6.01%