Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.