Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambuur win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambuur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.59%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cambuur would win this match.