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Lincoln City
EFL Trophy | Quarter-Finals
Jan 10, 2023 at 7pm UK
LNER Stadium
Accrington Stanley

Lincoln
2 - 2
Accrington

Hopper (7', 80')
Mandroiu (45+2'), O'Connor (77'), Jackson (83')
FT
(aet)
Presley (36', 73' pen.)
Conneely (89'), Presley (90+3')
Accrington win 3-1 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Lincoln City and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln City

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Charlton 2-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 7 at 3pm in League One

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Boreham Wood 1-1 Accrington
Saturday, January 7 at 3pm in FA Cup

We say: Lincoln City 2-1 Accrington Stanley

 While both sides are currently enduring poor spells of form, Lincoln have at least proven to be a tough team to beat on home turf this season. In their last three EFL Trophy home games, Lincoln have won twice and drawn one match against Morecambe, who they subsequently beat on penalties to claim a bonus point in the group stage, and we think that the Imps will continue that positive run by claiming a narrow win over a depleted Accrington side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawAccrington Stanley
35.02% (0.382 0.38) 26.67% (0.082000000000001 0.08) 38.31% (-0.466 -0.47)
Both teams to score 51.91% (-0.215 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.92% (-0.29600000000001 -0.3)53.08% (0.296 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.34% (-0.252 -0.25)74.66% (0.253 0.25)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.08% (0.093999999999994 0.09)28.92% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.2% (0.116 0.12)64.8% (-0.117 -0.12)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.02% (-0.40000000000001 -0.4)26.97% (0.4 0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.68% (-0.527 -0.53)62.31% (0.527 0.53)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 35.02%
    Accrington Stanley 38.31%
    Draw 26.67%
Lincoln CityDrawAccrington Stanley
1-0 @ 9.68% (0.137 0.14)
2-1 @ 7.87% (0.044 0.04)
2-0 @ 6% (0.1 0.1)
3-1 @ 3.25% (0.026 0.03)
3-0 @ 2.48% (0.048 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.01% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 35.02%
1-1 @ 12.68% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.8% (0.091 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.67%
0-1 @ 10.22% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.31% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-2 @ 6.7% (-0.074 -0.07)
1-3 @ 3.63% (-0.072 -0.07)
0-3 @ 2.93% (-0.066 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.19% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-4 @ 0.96% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 38.31%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Accrington

Lincoln City
75.9%
Draw
17.2%
Accrington Stanley
6.9%
29
Head to Head
Nov 1, 2022 7.45pm
Lincoln
1-1
Accrington
Diamond (60' pen.)
Virtue (27')
Rodgers (85')
Apr 23, 2022 3pm
Accrington
2-1
Lincoln
Jackson (34' og.), Bishop (59')
Savin (61')
Fiorini (90+3')
Whittaker (85'), Marquis (90'), Fiorini (90+7')
Nov 27, 2021 3.15pm
Lincoln
0-1
Accrington

Adelakun (77')
Bishop (55')
Rodgers (17'), Coyle (23'), Sykes (90+4')
Feb 14, 2021 6pm
Lincoln
2-2
Accrington
Rogers (53'), Hopper (84')
McGrandles (80'), Grant (83')
Charles (6', 90+1')
Barclay (14')
Jan 12, 2021 7pm
Third Round
Lincoln
4-0
Accrington
Elbouzedi (32'), Gotts (53'), Johnson (62'), Grant (90+2')

Mohammed (64'), Barclay (77')
rhs 2.0
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