EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Aug 9, 2022 at 7.30pm UK

Montgomery Waters Meadow

Shrewsbury
3 - 2
Carlisle

Leahy (45+1'), Udoh (75'), Dunkley (86')
Shipley (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Edmondson (13'), Dennis (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Shrewsbury Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Shrewsbury Town

Last Six:

Last Game: Shrewsbury 0-1 Accrington
Saturday, August 6 at 3pm in League One

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
19	Lincoln City	2	0	2
20	Shrewsbury Town	2	-1	1
21	Morecambe	2	-3	1

Carlisle United

Last Six:

Last Game: Colchester 1-1 Carlisle
Saturday, August 6 at 3pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
8	Northampton Town	2	1	4
9	Carlisle United	2	1	4
10	Doncaster Rovers	2	1	4

We said: Shrewsbury Town 1-0 Carlisle United

With just two goals between them so far, these sides are clearly not in full flow yet inside the final third. In a tightly-contested tie, then, Shrewsbury can make use of home advantage to advance from the first round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Shrewsbury Town would win this match.

Result
Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Carlisle United
34.04% ( -0.01)	26.65%	39.3% ( 0)

Both teams to score 51.8% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.85% (

53.14% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.28% (

74.71% (

-0)

Shrewsbury Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.43% (

-0)

29.56% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.4% (

-0)

65.59%

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.55% (

26.45% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.37% (

0.01)

61.62% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Shrewsbury Town 34.04%

Carlisle United 39.29%

Draw 26.65%

Shrewsbury Town	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 9.53% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.81% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.36% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.04%	1-1 @ 12.67% 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.65%	0-1 @ 10.39% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.92% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.07% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.28% 1-4 @ 1.24% 0-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.22% Total : 39.29%